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Antique Scarcity in the Internet Age

Antique Scarcity in the Internet Age

The world of antiques can be divided into two time periods: the pre-internet age - anytime before about 1996 - and our current internet age. At first glance, it might not be apparent exactly why this event would dramatically impact the notoriously traditional antiques trade. After all, antiques are an entire industry built around buying, selling, collecting and investing in items from the past - oftentimes the distant past. Antiques couldn't be more antithetical to high tech innovations like the internet.

But that didn't stop the internet age from absolutely eviscerating large swaths of the antiques industry. How did it do this? Quite simply, the internet revealed that many, many types of collectibles that were previously believed to be scarce were actually rather common.

In the pre-internet age, if you wanted a specific kind of antique, you had to go on a physical expedition to find it. This meant jumping in your car or taking public transportation to a physical antique store, an antiques mall or maybe a flea market. But this was always a very limited method that relied heavily on random luck to discover the antique you wanted.

There are a finite number of physical antique dealers within any geographical area. In addition, even an ambitious shopper will find there is a hard limit on the number of antique stores that can reasonably be explored in a day - probably on the order of 4 to 6 locations.

Of course, an antique collector operating in the pre-internet age was also constrained by the inventory the dealers near him chose to carry. This might be influenced by industry trends and regional tastes. In short, in the pre-internet age there was a lot less antique inventory to choose from and luck-of-the-draw was either your best friend or your worst enemy.

The dawning of the internet age changed all of that. The rise of platforms like eBay and Ruby Lane suddenly made massive numbers of antiques available to collectors, connoisseurs and decorators. This was a major step forward for the antiques industry.

However, the advent of the internet age also had a dark side. It revealed that dozens of different categories of antiques and collectibles previously believed to be scarce were, in reality, common - sometimes very common! Vintage toys, glassware, memorabilia and china are just a few of the antique categories that were revealed to be far more prevalent than previously thought.

Some specific sub-categories, such as Roseville Pottery, carnival glass and Hummel figurines, had their market prices absolutely decimated by this revelation. This antiques message board with a thread titled "What has happened to the pottery market?" paints a sobering picture of the current marketplace for pottery, but the concepts are equally applicable to many other collectible categories. It is hard to get excited about a collectible when it is possible to surf over to eBay and bring up 10,000 similar results with just a simple search.

Not everything is doom and gloom in the world of antiques, though. The rise of the internet age has created a little-appreciated silver lining for antique aficionados. If you search the major online platforms - the eBays, Ruby Lanes and Etsys of the world - for an antique and can only come up with a few dozen examples, then that is a good indicator that the piece in question is fairly scarce.

This might seem like a self-evident observation, but I can assure you that the antiques market hasn't quite caught up with the philosophical implications of this epiphany yet. You can think of the major online antique platforms as a giant international flea market. Absolutely every antique imaginable is represented on these websites.

They are effectively the aggregated antique inventory of the entire world. Yes, there are undoubtedly additional specimens hiding in attics and basements across the globe, but the antiques currently available online still number in the millions, if not tens of millions!

This means that the term "rare" before the late 1990s referred to a piece that might or might not have actually been rare, depending on local collector or dealer preferences and regional availability. In contrast, in our current internet age rare means that an antique is really, truly, exceptional rare. Seriously, if you have trouble finding more than a handful of examples of an item today with the considerable power of Google at your fingertips, it is highly unlikely the situation will dramatically change in the future.

This phenomenon isn't strictly limited to antiques either. We live in an age of mass production, but if you're willing to look for them, there are some beautifully handmade items out there that I refer to as "future antiques". These are objects that were made recently, but have been made to the highest standards by skilled craftsmen using the best quality materials available.

These future antiques will assuredly age into incredibly fine and desirable antiques after a few decades have passed. In addition, they are often unique specimens - an element of supreme importance when you consider that we live in a world overrun by mass produced, made in China junk. For example, I recently featured an artisan carved contemporary nephrite jade pendant in the Spotlight section of my website. Another great future antique I highlighted was a contemporary drypoint print by the artist Mariko Kuzumi.

But the best part about the fact that the antiques community hasn't figured out how rarity works in the internet age is the prices! You can currently snatch up really great items for unbelievably low prices - oftentimes just a few hundred dollars or even less. But one day the antiques market will figure out the way the new scarcity game works, so don't wait to make your move!

 

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Anatomy of an Antique Mall Expedition

Anatomy of an Antique Mall Expedition

It has long been my contention that investment grade antiques are extremely rare - much rarer than their current price tags would indicate anyway. My rule of thumb is that, in the average antique store, perhaps 1 in 1000 pieces (or fewer) qualifies as investment worthy. So I decided to put my theory to the test. I made an expedition to an antique mall that I had never visited before in order to see how many items would make the cut.

But first a caveat is in order. Every antique mall has a different character that will substantially impact your chances of finding valuable pieces. For example, those that carry more jewelry, sterling silver and art will generally have higher hit rates than those that specialize in crafts, glassware and other collectibles.

Location is another important factor. An antique mall located in a wealthy neighborhood or a neighborhood that had money in the past will often carry higher quality antiques that more easily qualify for investment status. Conversely, an antique mall located in a rural or middle class area will generally carry fewer high end items.

The antique mall I visited was in a very rural area, so I had fairly low expectations going into the expedition. But, on the other hand, you never know exactly what you're going to find or where you're going to find it. That is part of what makes antiquing so much fun.

The antique mall I visited had three floors chocked full of almost every kind of vintage, collectible and old item you could imagine. I always enjoy scouting for antiques in person because it is a very different experience from searching for antiques online. An in-person antiquing expedition gives you the chance to physically handle pieces, which is critical for developing your eye or keeping your skills sharp.

In any case, out of this massive antique mall containing thousands and thousands of items I only found a handful that interested me from an investment perspective. About one-third of the items in the shop should have simply been thrown into the nearest dumpster. Humanity certainly wouldn't have lost anything worth mentioning.

But let's talk about the antiques I discovered that I found intriguing. Now, keep in mind that when I talk about these items I am not wholesale endorsing them as investments. There are a lot of vintage and antique items out there that fall into a gray area. They have some investable attributes, but fall short in other critical areas. Anyway, I just want to make it clear that the items I'm listing are not generally on par with the superlative investment grade antiques that I regularly feature in the Antique Sage Spotlight section my website.

The first item I found was a carved ebony or blackwood tobacco jar. I am not certain of the exact tropical hardwood used for this piece, but it was a very dense and naturally dark colored. I am fairly certain that it was a native African species.

The carved jar features scenes of native Africans harvesting grain, similar to this example from Pinterest. The piece was obviously hand-carved in a rather naïve or "native" style. In spite of this, the jar still retains an attractive look and is a fair example of ethnographic art.

The jar was almost certainly sub-Saraha African in origin, probably from sometimes during the 20th century. It is possible that it was carved as a tourist souvenir. With a price of $60, I found this hand-carved ebony tobacco jar to be interesting, but probably not investment grade due to the crudeness of the carving. Personally, I would pass on this item.

Moving on, the next unusual piece I found was a rustic oil painting of a quaint Mexican town. The painting was small, measuring around 8 inches (20 cm) wide by 10 inches (25 cm) tall. In spite of its diminutive size, the artist successfully combined heavily textured brushwork and good composition with a deft treatment of light and shadow to create a compelling work of art.

The work is not superlative. The perspective is just a bit off and the painting is slightly worn on the upper left hand side. But as a signed work (the artist was Alicia de Salas) with a price of only $20, I think this Mexican painting was the sleeper hit of the expedition. Even though paintings aren't my main area of focus, I might very well buy it next time I visit that antique mall.

The next item was a piece of Bruce Fox wall art. This Mid Century embossed bronze sheet depicts a gazelle among tropical plants, and the entire work surrounded by a rich walnut frame. The work is well executed and quite good looking. It would really make a stellar wall hanging, especially for anyone who wants that Mad Men look for not a lot of money.

Bruce Fox was an artist and metalworker who founded his eponymously named company in 1938. Bruce Fox, Inc. specialized in aluminum, copper and bronze art and decorative items. The company gradually moved away from consumer decor into industrial segments in the late 1960s.

This Bruce fox bronze wall art is labeled "Bruce Fox Hand Worked" on the back along with a handwritten "2150", probably denoting the serial number of this work. I'm guessing several thousand were originally produced. The price was only $35; unfortunately, the walnut frame was not in great condition, reducing the desirability of the work.

The final good item I found on my antique mall expedition was a hand-hammered Arts & Crafts sterling silver bowl by the firm of Lebolt & Co. Lebolt & Co. was a Chicago-based jeweler and silversmith that operated from 1908.

This fairly heavy, good quality sterling silver bowl was very simple except for the hand-hammered decoration and some subtle fluting around the bowl edge. This is absolutely typical of Arts and Crafts silver, which eschewed gaudy design.

The price was $320, which is more or less in line with current market value. If I had been looking for early 20th century American silver or Arts & Crafts movement pieces, I would have not hesitated to buy this sterling silver bowl.

So there it is. A large antique mall with thousands and thousands of items in it and I found four that could potentially have been considered investment grade. And, quite honestly, I'm guessing that only the silver bowl and the Mexican oil painting really make the grade (although the other two items would be wonderful decorative pieces).

There is a lesson to be learned here. High quality, investment grade antiques are really, really rare. There are far fewer of them out there than people realize, but their rarity is currently obfuscated by their low prices. I don't expect this situation to last forever, though. Invest accordingly.

 

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Thoughts of a Grizzled Gold Scrapping Veteran

Thoughts of a Grizzled Gold Scrapping Veteran

A long time ago, I used to scrap gold as a hobby.  That's right.  Before the cash for gold craze went viral, I was on the scene, tirelessly scouting flea markets and antique stores for scrap gold.  Given the extensive experience I acquired, you would think that I have a tip or two about gold scrapping.  And I do.

First, if you are currently contemplating scrapping gold or other precious metals as a hobby or a business, don't do it.  The space is absolutely overrun with competition today.  There is a cash for gold kiosk or a pawn shop sitting on every other street corner these days.  And they have been busy separating desperate people from their gold jewelry for more than a decade at this point.  In many less fortunate neighborhoods there probably isn't that much gold left to scrap anyway.

But it didn't use to be that way.  Back when I was prospecting, in the late 1990s and early 2000s, nobody scrapped precious metals.  Why not?  Because gold and silver were only $300 and $5 a troy ounce, respectively!  Everyone was too busy driving their massively oversized SUVs to their ridiculously huge McMansions, while being fabulously wealthy, to worry about scrapping gold.

Perhaps an anecdotal story will best exemplify the conspicuous waste during this time.  My mother's friend threw away a complete 12 place setting sterling silver service she had inherited just because she felt it was outdated.  She thought it was ugly and didn't want it anymore, so into the trash it went.  Can you believe that?  A perfectly good 50, 75 or 100 troy ounce set of sterling flatware thrown into the trash heap!  Stories like this are fascinating as social commentary while also exemplifying the horrible wastefulness of the era.

But for an amateur gold scrapper like me, the late 1990s were a literal golden age.  I remember gleefully picking through boxes full of junk jewelry in antique stores at that time.  Each piece of jewelry might cost you anywhere from a quarter to a few dollars.  But sterling silver was common and karat gold could frequently be found.

I think the deals were so great because nobody could be bothered to scrounge around for the few dollars available from gold scrapping.  Antique dealers were doing well selling collectibles to Baby Boomers for outrageously high prices.  They didn't need to squeeze the last dollar out of a few pieces of junk jewelry.

It takes some time to identify karat gold and individually price it.  For most dealers, $300 an ounce gold just didn't justify the effort.  If a dealer was shooting for maximum turnover, it was simply easier to throw the jewelry in a communal bin and slap a nominal, one-size-fits-all price on it.  Despite the low precious metal prices - or perhaps because of them - it was an ideal environment for gold scrapping and I took full advantage of it.

One time, I even scored a 14 gram (0.386 troy ounce) pair of solid 14 karat gold cufflinks at a flea market for a mere $2.  Gold was trading around $350 at the time, so the scrap value was about $92.  That translated into an instantaneous 4,500% return on my initial investment!

Of course such phenomenally great deals were rare, even in the good old days.  And the days didn't stay good forever.  As the price of gold and silver inexorably rose, the supply of cheap, overlooked junk gold jewelry gradually dried up.

As it became progressively harder and harder to find gold jewelry to scrap, I gradually abandoned my lucrative hobby.  Even though the price of gold increased substantially during the early to mid 2000s, the amount of scrap gold I found dropped so drastically that it didn't make any financial sense to pursue gold scrapping.

The magic in gold scrapping was gone.  In many ways, I feel that 2006 was the death knell for the part-time precious metal scrapper.  In that year, the price of gold shot above $600 a troy ounce and has more or less stayed above that level ever since.  The increased recognition of gold's scrap value quickly led to an explosion of scrap for gold companies and a simultaneous emptying of antique store display cases.  If you find a piece of karat gold jewelry in an antique store today, it will undoubtedly be priced two or three times above scrap value, even if it is damaged or otherwise junk.

Antiquing and the Gray Man Concept

Antiquing and the Gray Man Concept

Art and antiques investors must sometimes deal with smaller art galleries, coin shops or antique dealers that will only accept cash as payment.  This often necessitates carrying large sums of cash on one's person to consummate a business deal.  Likewise, after a high value investment grade antique is purchased, it isn't uncommon to have to carry the item some distance in a busy or urban area, either to your car or to public transportation.

These conditions create security risks.  However, these dangers can be partially mitigated by engaging in "Gray Man" behavior.  The Gray Man concept revolves around blending into the crowd as much as possible, yet still being aware of your surroundings.  The Gray Man does nothing to draw attention to himself.  He dresses like everyone else.  He walks like everyone else.  He acts like everyone else.

The Gray Man does not make himself a target by showing off his wealth.  He doesn't wear a Rolex and drive a BMW, or otherwise flaunt his good taste and material success.  These things may appeal to our egos and help our social standing, but they can also make us potential targets for opportunistic criminals.

Gray Man behavior is invaluable in the world of art and antiques where it isn't uncommon to deal with large sums of cash and high value items.  Being The Gray Man will help you remain inconspicuous, even if you are carrying several thousand dollars or a high end piece of antique diamond jewelry.  In fact, I have a personal story to support this assertion.

One time many years ago, I was shopping for bullion at my favorite Boston-based coin store, J.J. Teaparty, when a young man walked in who wanted to sell a gold bracelet.  This guy was a little rough around the edges and didn't fit in with the shop's normal clientele.  The store proprietor, Miles, took one look at the guy and told him to get out.

I had been standing off to the side in the small shop, watching the entire scene unfold.  I inferred from Miles' behavior that the gold bracelet the man wanted to sell was probably stolen goods.  This wasn't immediately obvious to me, but I knew Miles was a trustworthy business man.  If he wanted nothing to do with someone, then there was undoubtedly a good reason for it.

In any case, the man with the gold bracelet stormed out of the store in a sour mood, having been unable to convert his possibly ill-gotten treasure into cash.  I quickly conducted by own business, buying two 100 troy ounce silver bars, and then departed the store.

Once I was out on the street, I was dismayed to find that the bracelet man had waited for me, just out of sight, outside the coin shop.  He quickly approached me, offering to sell me the gold bracelet that he had been unable to sell at J.J. Teaparty.  I politely told him I wasn't interested, but the rough-looking man didn't want to take no for an answer.

This was even more harrowing at the time because I was carrying almost 14 pounds of silver bullion in my messenger bag worth about $1,000.  After I tersely declined his offer to buy the possibly hot property, he began loudly denigrating me right in the middle of the street.  He nonsensically shrieked that I thought I was better than him.

The situation was growing dangerous.  But this is where the Gray Man concept proved itself useful.  Even as the man approached and engaged me, I continued walking briskly from the low-traffic side street where J.J. Teaparty was located to the nearby and more active Downtown Crossing area.

I also avoided eye contact and never raised my voice when refusing his attempts to sell me the bracelet.  I kept one hand firmly underneath the messenger bag at my side, so as not to make its excessive weight obvious.  But my body language was one of firm disinterest.  I never stopped or turned towards the man, nor gave any other indication that I would engage him.

These tactics worked.  After haranguing me for a tense minute or so, he gave up and walked away.  I am certain that it was my Gray Man behavior, in part, that prevented the situation from escalating further.

Although my experience was atypical, The Gray Man concept is a good idea when buying any kind of high value, tangible goods in person.  While it is my sincere hope that you will never need it, The Gray Man concept may prove invaluable to your personal security.  The man who blends into the crowd is the man who avoids trouble.