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Understanding the Great Silver Shortage of 2020

Understanding the Great Silver Shortage of 2020

Driven by crashing markets and a viral pandemic, March 2020 is proving to be the United State's deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression.  And that is saying something, considering that the 2008-2009 recession was a near-death experience for the capitalist system.  Global stock markets are plummeting, corporate bond markets are freezing and bid-ask spreads in all asset classes are blowing out in truly historic moves.  And all of this is happening in spite of the fact that the Federal Reserve is printing money as fast as it can.

So it shouldn't come as a surprise that near-chaos has arrived in the U.S., with people hoarding toilet paper, food and ammunition.  Precious metals have also seen skyrocketing demand in these troubled times, leading to massive premiums for physical gold, silver and platinum bullion.

Silver, in particular, has been in extraordinarily high demand.  In fact, demand for silver has been so high that it wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that we are currently experiencing a silver shortage of incredible proportions.  Some bullion dealers have simply run out of inventory - an unprecedented event to the best of my knowledge.

Under normal circumstances a large dealer will have hundreds of different kinds of silver products available for sale - everything from government-issued coins to privately-minted rounds and bars of all sizes.  But worried investors have been buying with both fists as the economic situation worsens.  As a result, dealers have had an incredibly difficult time keeping anything in stock.

Let's walk through some examples of just how crazy the silver shortage has become.

Junk silver, old 90% silver U.S. coins struck before 1965, is front and center in this unfolding disaster.  These coins used to be one of the cheapest (and best) ways to stack silver before the Coronavirus/financial crisis hit.  But now premiums have shot through the roof.  A $1,000 face value bag containing 715 troy ounces of pure silver could be purchased for $12,500 in early March - 12.5x face value.  This represented a premium of about $0.50 an ounce, or around 3% over melt at the time.

By late March that same bag of junk silver cost you $17,800 (17.8x face value).  But the real problem is that the spot price of silver dropped considerably during the month, from around $17 an ounce to only $14.50.  As a result, the premium for junk silver bags exploded to over $10 an ounce - a stunning 70% premium over spot!

American Silver Eagle bullion coins are no less expensive.  Before the crisis hit it was common to find these popular coins for around $3 over spot, or a 17.5% premium.  But now they costs anywhere from $9 to $11 per coin over bullion value.  This comes out to a prodigious 62% to 75% premium over spot.

And this assumes you can find silver to buy at all.  Many silver bars and government-issued bullion coins are unavailable at any price due to a stampede of buyers, coupled with insufficient supply.  In many ways, the present situation mirrors what happened in the precious metals market during the 2008 financial crisis - except on steroids.  Premiums exploded on many silver products back then too.  But the key difference is that our current silver shortage is much more likely to be a long, drawn out affair.

Before I delve into why I believe that is the case, I think it would be useful to examine the details of why we are seeing a silver shortage right now.

The first explanation for our current silver shortage is the collapse of global stock markets.  The S&P 500 experienced a 35% peak to trough decline in early 2020, which is troubling in its own right.  The real problem is that this drawdown occurred over the course of just a single month!  That sort of volatility is unprecedented, especially when you consider that investors had been lulled into a false sense of security by equity markets that persistently wafted higher for years beforehand.

People who were spooked by losing a third of their life savings in the markets in a mere 30 days naturally looked around for more tangible investments to balance their paper-asset-skewed portfolios.  Silver was one of the obvious choices, leading to exploding demand for physical coins and bars.

The next contributing factor to the silver shortage of 2020 is the specter of zero interest rates.  As recently as late February 2020, the Federal Funds rate was still at a (relatively) robust 1.5%.  This meant that prudent savers could expect some return on their rainy day fund, albeit a modest return.

But as the largest market dislocation since the Great Depression tore through the economy, the Federal Reserve went back to one of the only tools it has: lowering interest rates.  The first cut came on March 3rd, when the Fed lowered rates from 1.5% to 1.0%.  As the economic situation continued to rapidly deteriorate, they followed up with a panicked intra-meeting cut to 0% barely two weeks later.

Now we've seen this story before.

The first time around was during the 2008 financial crisis.  At that time the Federal Reserve swore up and down that lowering rates to 0% was an extraordinary measure that would be rolled back the moment the economy stabilized.

The Fed was lying of course.

It took them almost 8 long years to raise interest rates off the zero bound.  And during that time savers received no interest on their CDs, savings accounts and money market funds.  This wasn't an accident.  The Federal Reserve consciously used this immoral policy as a way to recapitalize the criminal, too-big-to-fail banks in the wake of the 2008 collapse.

 

Federal Funds Rate from 2008 to 2020

Here is the federal funds rate from 2008 to 2020. Don't be fooled by the chart's deceptive endpoint at 1.5%. The rate actually dropped to zero, but hasn't had time to be reflected in the chart yet.

 

And like a sick dog going back to eat its own vomit again and again, the Fed is once more resorting to this same discredited zero interest rate trick.

Except this time average people know that interest rates are going to stay at the zero bound forever, or at least until we have a new monetary system in place - whenever that is!

Consequently, smart savers have begun the process of converting some of their savings from dollars into precious metals.  After all, a zero interest rate policy pretty much ensures that any fiat-currency savings you have will shrink in purchasing power over time due to inflation.  So you're better off buying physical gold, silver or platinum, rather than holding onto steadily depreciating dollars (or euros, pounds or yen, for that matter).

The final reason for the ongoing silver shortage is a little more complex than the first two.  The capital markets experienced a liquidity crisis of epic proportions during March 2020 - an event on par with financial dislocations last experienced during the Great Depression of the 1930s.

This liquidity crisis occurred when levered institutional financial players (like hedge funds) needed to sell assets in order to meet margin calls.  In other words, they had to post additional cash collateral against their outstanding loans as markets fell off a cliff.

Before the crisis hit many hedge funds were loaded up with junk bonds, CDOs, over-the-counter derivatives and other undesirable, illiquid assets.  As these poor quality assets declined in value during the crisis, funds naturally received margin calls on any borrowed money.  But the funds couldn't sell their really nasty securities to raise cash because no one wanted them.

So instead, hedge funds sold whatever assets could catch a bid.  Unsurprisingly, the assets that remained liquid in the depths of the crisis were few and far between.  In fact, the short list is only two assets long: U.S. Treasury bonds and precious metals, including silver.

Now you might reasonably ask yourself how hedge funds selling silver could possibly lead to a silver shortage.  Well, it can't…at least not directly.  But it did contribute to the massive divergence between spot prices and the cost to acquire physical silver, leading to exploding premiums.

This is because when hedge funds and other institutional investors buy precious metals, they almost never buy physical metal.  Instead, they purchase paper metal - usually futures contracts.  So when they liquidate silver to meet a margin call, they are actually selling futures contracts rather than real, physical metal.

But the public understandably wants to buy physical silver, not empty paper promises.  As a result, premiums skyrocketed and we found ourselves in the strange situation where the spot price of silver hit an 11-year low under $12 a troy ounce on March 19th while you couldn't touch American Silver Eagles for less than $20 to $25 a piece.

Now that we know the why of our current silver shortage, we can talk cogently about when it might be resolved.

I have bad news for all you silver stackers out there.  I don't think we are ever going to go back to the good old days of junk silver selling for $0.25 to $0.50 an ounce over spot.  And I think it will be a long, long time before government-issued silver coins and privately-minted silver rounds and bars are available for less than $2 or $3 an ounce over spot.

The silver shortage is likely to be a long, drawn-out affair.

I base this assessment on a couple different observations.

The first is the sheer magnitude of demand.  Every single bullion dealer has a message on their website alerting customers to product shortages, shipping delays and minimum order increases.  Just read these excerpts from major bullion dealers commenting on the extraordinary situation:

"Demand for precious metals products remains incredibly strong." - JM Bullion (3/22/2020)

"SD Bullion is experiencing a prolonged period of extremely high order volume. Last week, we received the most orders in the history of our company." - SD Bullion (3/24/2020)

"Due to unprecedented order volumes, please expect a shipping delay of 20+ business days." - SilverGoldBull (3/28/2020)

Everybody is buying silver right now…at least everyone who knows the score, financially speaking.  This group understands that while the COVID-19 pandemic has taken a sledgehammer to the economy, the 2020 economic crisis has been a long time in coming.  The Fed spent the last decade meticulously blowing the largest securities market bubble in the history of mankind.  Something was going to pop the "Everything Bubble" eventually - it just happened to be a killer virus that gutted the global economy and revealed the outrageous extent of market overvaluation.

 

Pre-1965 U.S. 90% Junk Silver Rolls for Sale on eBay

 

Low or inadequate precious metals output is the second major factor ensuring that the 2020 silver shortage will linger on.  For example, The U.S. Mint temporarily sold out of 2020 American Silver Eagles in March.  The Royal Canadian Mint also ran out of Silver Maple Leafs around the same time.  This has helped contribute to the sky-high premiums for government-issued one ounce bullion coins in the market.

Now, these mints can certainly strike more coins, but they are also constrained at the same time.  The entire world is operating under a pandemic watch, which severely limits industrial production.  The U.S. Mint is not exempt from these realities, which could easily curb output at their facilities.  Not only that, but the Mint might run into problems getting the coin blanks it sources from third-party suppliers (most notably Sunshine Minting).

For its part, the Royal Canadian Mint actually closed for two weeks in late March due to the pandemic!  Other precious metal producers and fabricators, both government and private, face similar disruptions.

For instance, South Africa just announced that the entire country (including the mining industry, which produces a significant share of the world's platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold) will shut down for 3 weeks to combat the spread of COVID-19.  The three biggest Swiss precious metal refiners - Valcambi, Argor-Heraeus and PAMP - suspended operations at their factories near the Italian border in late March.  And individual gold and silver mines too numerous to mention have temporarily closed all over the world due to the virus.

In other words, the production of silver bullion will only come back online slowly and haltingly in the face of overwhelming demand.

This leaves silver stackers and tangible asset investors with one burning question: how do I find and buy cheap silver?  Happily, I still think there are ways to find silver bullion at (relatively) reasonable prices if you look hard enough.

But first a disclaimer - prices and availability is accurate as of late March 2020.  The physical precious metals market is obviously moving very fast at this time, so anything you read here might or might not be true in future months.

My first suggestion is to buy old circulated U.S. junk silver on eBay.  While bullion dealers are charging close to 18x face value (if they have any in stock), you can still find rolls of 90% junk silver for only 15x to 16x face value on eBay (with free shipping in many cases).  This might still be a hefty premium over the (purely theoretical) futures-driven spot price (currently $14.50 an ounce - about 10.4x face value), but it is still one of the best deals out there if you want fractional silver.

My second hot tip is to frequent the websites of micro-foundries that produce hand-poured silver bars.  These works of art usually sell for premium prices on the bullion market compared to generic silver rounds or bars.  But in today's upside-down world these small silver bar fabricators often have the best prices out there - at least for now.  This includes companies like Vulture Peak Mines, Bison Bullion, Yeager's Poured Silver and Monarch Precious Metals, among others.

If you want to know more about the world of hand-poured silver bars, you can read an article I wrote called The Investment Case for Hand-Poured Silver Bars.

My final bit of advice for the frustrated silver stacker is to consider buying gold instead of silver.  Right now gold is far more available in the physical market compared to either silver or platinum.

I know, I know.  The gold-silver ratio is hovering around 115 at the moment, which makes the precious white metal criminally undervalued compared to gold.  But that ratio is based on paper prices, not physical prices.  In reality, the gold-silver ratio is closer to 80 or 90 to 1 if you want to buy physical metals (and can find them).  This still skews towards silver as being the better deal.  But those prepared to push forward in their search for physical silver must accept paying premiums over spot of anywhere from 50% to 100%.

Some tangible asset investors simply can't bear to pay premiums that high.  For those people, gold is the next best thing.  While premiums on gold coins are certainly elevated relative to where they were pre-crisis, they aren't outrageously high (yet).  For instance, 1 ounce American Gold Eagles are generally selling for between 10% and 15% premiums over spot at the moment.

 

Government-Issued Gold Proof Sets for Sale on eBay

 

I especially like the government-issued, multi-coin gold proof sets.  These sets usually contain 1 ounce, 1/2 ounce, 1/4 ounce and 1/10 ounce coins for a total of 1.85 troy ounces of pure gold (although this can vary by set; some include a 1/20 ounce coin).  The most well known type is the American Gold Eagle proof set, but Australian Kangaroo, Canadian Maple Leaf, Chinese Panda, British Britannia and South African Krugerrand proof sets can also be found.

The advantage here is that these coins are all proofs, which should normally trade with a slight numismatic premium.  However, because the precious metal market is so unsettled right now it is possible to buy these sets at premiums comparable to regular bullion coins.  So when you buy a proof set today, you essentially get any future numismatic potential for free.

The downside is that these sets are expensive.  A typical 4-coin proof set runs anywhere from $3,300 to $4,000 with spot gold trading for $1,600 an ounce.  Still, it may be worthwhile if you want to invest a significant amount of money.

For those interested in this strategy, you can read a related article I wrote about investing in proof American Gold Eagles here.

The 2020 silver shortage is challenging for all of us who want to preserve our wealth.  So while I understand that the options I've given are less than ideal, I hope they offer you some solace.  Unfortunately, our present silver shortage is likely to get worse before it gets better.

 

Read more thought-provoking Antique Sage investing articles here.

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Read in-depth Antique Sage investment guides here.


80% Purity Canadian Junk Silver VS U.S. 90% Junk Silver

80% Purity Canadian Junk Silver VS U.S. 90% Junk Silver

Today I'd like to talk about the other junk silver - Canadian junk silver!  This form of silver bullion has most of same advantages that U.S. junk silver has, but often gets ignored by the silver stacking community.  I hope to do my part to correct this by shining a spotlight on this underappreciated silver bullion option.

 

A Short History of Canadian Silver Coinage

The Canadian Royal Mint started striking silver coins in 1858, when Canada was still a British colony.  The initial denominations were the silver half dime (5 cents), dime (10 cents) and 20-cent piece.  This lineup was amended in 1870, when the 20-cent piece was replaced with the quarter (25 cents) and the half dollar (50 cents) was added.  All of these early Canadian silver coins were struck in 92.5% fine sterling silver, just like the silver coinage of Canada's parent country, Great Britain.

In the aftermath of World War I, both Great Britain and Canada debased their silver coinage due to the expense of the conflict.  However, while Great Britain started issuing coinage in .500 fine silver, Canada only debased its silver coinage to .800 fine.  So from 1920 until 1966, 80% purity was the standard alloy for Canadian silver coins.  Purity further dropped to 50% briefly in 1967-1968 before switching over to 100% nickel in late 1968.  I'll discuss the messy 1967-1968 end period for Canadian silver coinage later on in this article.

Canada further tweaked its silver coin denominations right after World War I.  The tiny silver half dime was discontinued in 1921, leaving a coin lineup familiar to most people today: the dime, quarter and half dollar.  Canadian silver dollars only came a little bit later, being first struck in 1935

The 80% fine coins minted between 1920 and 1966 represent the bulk of Canadian junk silver that the average silver stacker will encounter in the marketplace.  Pre-1920 sterling Canadian coins generally aren't found in junk lots because of their higher purity and substantial numismatic value.  So we'll only concern ourselves with the 20th-century, 80% purity Canadian junk silver in this analysis.

 

The Advantages of Buying Canadian Junk 80% Silver Coins

One of the biggest benefits to stacking Canadian junk silver coins is that their silver content is in easy to calculate round numbers.  A Canadian silver dollar minted before 1968 contains 0.6 troy ounces of fine silver and a Canadian half dollar 0.3 troy ounces, while a Canadian quarter struck before 1967 has 0.15 troy ounces of fine silver and a Canadian dime 0.06 troy ounces.  These amounts apply only to Canadian silver coinage that is 80% fine.  Earlier sterling silver Canadian coins contain more silver, while later 50% fine coins have less silver.

This might seem like a really small detail, but for some stackers it is a nearly indispensable advantage.  It makes calculating the exact amount of silver you have in your Canadian junk silver stack incredibly easy: just multiple the face value by 0.6.  So for example, $20 in Canadian 80% silver coins would be 12 troy ounces fine silver.  $8.25 would be 4.95 troy ounces.  $55 face value would be 33 troy ounces.  The 0.6 multiplier is easy to remember and, depending on your math skills, might not even require a calculator to figure out.

This is a lot better than U.S. 90% junk silver, where the ratios are always frustratingly difficult.  Circulated U.S. junk silver is assumed to contain 0.715 troy ounces per $1 face value, which is not easy to remember or calculate.  The ratio for very lightly circulated or uncirculated U.S. junk silver is even more unwieldy, with each $1 face value containing 0.7234 troy ounces.  There is no figuring these numbers in your head unless you are dealing with a supremely round number, like $10 face value or $100 face value.

Of course the convenient 0.6 ratio for Canadian junk silver only applies to lightly circulated coins, but I'll address that later in this article.

Another major advantage with Canadian junk silver is that the idea of ever running into counterfeit examples is almost inconceivable.  Much like the country it hails from, Canadian coinage flies underneath the radar.  Because of this, the Chinese counterfeiting rings that churn out fake U.S. coins don't bother with Canadian coins - at least so far.

I should note, though, that it is also rather uncommon to find fake U.S. junk silver coins.  The profit margins for fakers are simply too low.  There is one notable exception to this rule of thumb, though.  Morgan and Peace dollars seem to be the only U.S. junk silver coins that have enough popularity and numismatic value to spur the production of counterfeit common-date specimens.

So it could be argued that it is almost a wash between Canadian and U.S. junk silver concerning counterfeits, with Canadian silver coinage having just a slight edge.

But there is one area where Canadian junk silver wins hands down over U.S. junk silver.  Canadian silver dollars are typically much, much cheaper than their U.S. counterparts when measured by their premium over melt value.

 

Vintage 80% Fine Canadian Silver Dollars for Sale on eBay

 

On bullion dealer APMEX's website a roll of 20 average circulated Morgan silver dollars was selling (as of November 2019, which was pre-COVID-19) for a jaw-droppingly high 90% premium over its melt value.  A similar roll of Peace silver dollars was selling for a still hefty 37% premium over spot.  But APMEX was willing to sell you a roll of 20 average circulated 80% fine Canadian silver dollars minted between 1958 and 1967 for only a 13.5% premium over melt.

As an added bonus, Canadian silver dollars in average circulated condition will usually be in much better shape than equivalent Morgan or Peace dollars.  This is because U.S. silver dollars are older and circulated for a much longer period of time.  U.S. Morgan and Peace silver dollar production ran from 1878 until 1935, when minting was discontinued due to the Great Depression.  However, the Royal Canadian Mint only started striking silver dollars in 1935 (the same year they were dropped in the U.S.), with the final year of regular-issue 80% fine silver dollars rolling off the presses in 1967.

And any Morgan and Peace dollars you do find in junk lots have almost always been picked over to remove higher grade specimens.  This is because U.S. silver dollars in better conditions (generally XF and above) tend to sell for premium prices over more worn examples.

But this isn't the case with Canadian silver dollars, giving astute silver stackers a very interesting arbitrage opportunity.  Remember that roll of Canadian silver dollars that APMEX was willing to sell you for just 13.5% over spot?  Well, they will also sell you the same roll in near-mint state AU/BU condition for only a few dollars more.  Even now, these rolls of impressively large silver dollars in near pristine condition sell on the APMEX website for just 20.1% over spot.  This is a criminally cheap price for so-called "junk silver" in the middle of the COVID-19 run on silver bullion products.

Canadian junk silver also offers collectors the possibility of finding numismatically valuable coins.  Although uncommon, it isn't unheard of to come across overlooked coins in Canadian junk silver lots that are worth 2x, 3x or even 4x their melt value!

In contrast, it is much harder to find numismatically worthwhile coins in rolls or bags of U.S. junk silver, although it does happen on rare occasions.  This is because U.S. silver coins tend to be heavily picked over for valuable specimens, while Canadian silver coins once again fly under the radar.

 

The Downsides of Buying 80% Purity Canadian Junk Silver

One drawback to stacking Canadian junk silver is its potentially limited availability.  While nearly all bullion dealers in North America carry U.S. 90% junk silver coins in their inventory, far fewer stock Canadian 80% silver coins.  In fact, at the time of writing I could only find two major online dealers selling Canadian junk silver: APMEX and SilverGoldBull.  This could very well change in the future, but it does underscore just how difficult it can be to source this type of junk silver in volume.

Happily, there are other venues available for lovers of Canadian junk silver.  Many small online dealers (primarily in Canada) stock and sell the stuff.  And your local coin store might also have some Canadian 80% silver that it is willing to sell for close to spot, depending on the circumstances.  Lastly, eBay often has good deals on Canadian silver coins.

Another complaint about Canadian junk silver is its relative lack of liquidity; there can be wide spreads between dealers' bid and ask prices.  This means a dealer might charge you a high premium on the coins when you want to buy, but offer you well below spot when you want to sell.

This drawback isn't set in stone though.  I've already documented how APMEX sells Canadian silver dollars for very competitive prices (although this could change in the future, depending on availability).  Well, I've also discovered that the well-known online dealer Kitco is normally willing to purchase 80% fine Canadian junk silver for between 3% and 4% below melt value - the exact same rate it pays for U.S. junk silver.  And although this is already a pretty good buyback price, it might be possible to find private buyers who are willing to pay even more.

 

Vintage 80% Fine Canadian Junk Silver Lots for Sale on eBay

 

I should also note that Kitco's buyback price on Canadian junk silver is now (as of mid-March 2020) at an unusually wide 9.9% discount to spot due to the recent turmoil in precious metal markets.

One of the biggest issues with Canadian junk silver is the confusion surrounding 50% fine silver coins that were struck in 1967 and 1968.  While all Canadian dimes, quarter, halves and dollars were minted from 80% silver from 1920 through 1966, things get a bit messy afterwards.  The rising price of silver in the mid 1960s forced the Royal Canadian Mint to debase some of its coinage to just 50% fine.  Even this step ultimately proved insufficient, however, and all silver was permanently removed from circulating Canadian coinage by 1969.

So here is a quick cheat sheet.  All Canadian silver dollars and half dollars were struck in 80% silver through 1967, changing over to 100% nickel in 1968.  There are no 50% fine silver Canadian halves or dollars.

All Canadian dimes and quarters were minted from 80% fine silver through 1966.  In 1967, the Royal Canadian Mint struck them in both 80% and 50% purities.  There is no easy way to tell these different purity coins apart (although testing questionable coins with a CCT silver slide might help).  In 1968, the composition of dimes and quarters was either 50% fine silver or 100% nickel.  A strong magnet will be able to separate these two alloys.

So dealing with Canadian junk silver isn't so hard in the end.  1966 and earlier coins are all 80% goodness.  1967 halves and dollars are also money good.  Any vintage Canadian coins that stick to a magnet are made from nickel, so they are relatively easy to weed out.  Honestly, the best way to approach 1967 dimes and quarters is just to assume that they are all 50% fine and bid accordingly (if you're still interested).

The final problem with Canadian junk silver is that it is simply less recognized compared to U.S. junk silver.  A lot of silver stackers buy junk silver in preparation for natural disasters, civil disturbances, economic crashes or other disruptive events where normal payment systems might break down.  As a result, some bullion buyers simply don't like the idea of stockpiling a form of silver that other people might not recognize or accept.

Of course, if you live in Canada - or even in a U.S. state near the Canadian border - then I think this objection is largely moot.  Most people living in these areas will be at least somewhat familiar with old Canadian silver coinage.

I personally feel that Canadian junk silver can be a great way to accumulate silver bullion, assuming you pay the right price for it.  I'm especially fond of Canadian 80% silver dollars and half dollars, which tend to have less wear and greater numismatic potential than Canadian silver dimes and quarters.  However you want to look at it, Canadian junk silver is the overlooked northern brother of U.S. junk silver.

 

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How to Buy Gold below Spot on eBay

How to Buy Gold below Spot on eBay
Photo Credit:  James St. John

I would like to make a public service announcement.  Right now it is possible to purchase gold below spot on eBay with very little effort.  In my experience this is an almost unprecedented situation.  Sure, sometimes bullion dealers have specials where they sell gold coins for a couple percent over spot.  But selling gold below spot?  It's simply unheard of…until now at least.

Before I give the big reveal, I'd like to talk a bit about the circumstances behind how this somewhat bizarre situation came to be.

When most of us think of gold bullion, we picture 1 troy ounce bullion coins struck by sovereign governments.  Some popular examples are the American Gold Eagle, the Canadian Maple Leaf, the Australian Kangaroo, the British Britannia and the Chinese Panda.  There are others, of course, but this short list will keep things simple.

Gold bullion might also bring to mind bullion bars or rounds struck by private refiners and mints.  Pamp Suisse, the Scottsdale Mint, Valcambi Suisse, the Perth Mint and Johnson Matthey are some of the better known names in gold bullion.  These gold bars and rounds are equivalent to government issued bullion coins, with very little difference in quality and no difference in gold content.

But all conventional bullion bars, rounds and coins are sold above spot.  This is because the government or private mint that strikes them, along with the distributing wholesale dealer, needs a profit margin and the only way to get that margin is by charging a price that is higher than spot.  It might be a small profit margin - often between 2% and 5% for a 1 troy ounce piece - but it is a positive number nonetheless.

So the real question is why would anyone ever sell gold below spot?

Sure, you might occasionally find gold jewelry scrap sold below spot.  But scrap jewelry isn't an ideal form of gold to hold because it isn't widely recognized or accepted.  This is because the gold content can be difficult to verify.  In addition, a refinery charge must be taken into account if you ever want to process the scrap into a usable form.

But I'm not talking about buying scrap gold jewelry here.  I'm talking about buying a legitimate gold coin with a known weight and fineness struck by a well-respected government.  Buying gold coins below spot is far superior compared to stocking up on junk jewelry.

Once again we are faced with the question, why would anyone ever sell gold below spot?

The magical answer to this conundrum is a concept known as sunk costs.  If a coin was minted long enough ago - usually many decades - then no one is trying to make a profit on its manufacture any longer.  These coins have passed through many hands over the years.  All the time, effort and expertise consumed during the long-ago production of an older gold coin is considered a sunk cost.  This means that the premium on common older gold coins can actually go negative in some circumstances, although typically not by very much.

But I have another trick to get these coins even cheaper.  EBay allows its users to supercharge their bullion purchases through the use of its eBay Bucks program.  EBay bucks rebates normally accrue on eligible purchases at the rate of 1%.  But if you wait for a promotional period, it is fairly common to get special bonuses of 10%.  You can then combine this with a cash-back credit card rewards program to enhance your leverage in acquiring gold below spot.

I will use an enhanced 10% eBay Bucks rate in conjunction with 1% credit card rewards as my baseline assumption for all premium calculations below.

 

eBay Bucks Eligible Pre-1933 U.S. Gold Coins For Sale

 

Using these criteria, generic pre-1933 U.S. gold coins are at the top of my shopping list.  These iconic coins were struck from the 19th century right up until the Great Depression in the early 1930s.  Denominations range from the small $2.50, or quarter eagle gold piece, right up to the massive $20 double eagle gold coin.

But the best thing about common-date pre-1933 U.S. gold coins is their price.  These unique mementos of Americana can be found on eBay in circulated XF to AU condition at 3% to 8% below the spot price of gold (once incentives are factored in).

For example, I spotted a random-date $20 Liberty Head in AU condition (which contains 0.9675 troy ounces of pure gold) for 4.3% over spot.  After accounting for eBay Bucks and credit card rewards, you could buy this coin for -3.6% under spot.

If you don't have the $1,500 to splurge on a gigantic double eagle gold coin, you could always get yourself an XF $5 Liberty Head half eagle (containing 0.2419 troy ounces of gold) for around $400.  This coin sells for 7.0% over spot without eBay Bucks and -4.8% with them (at the time of writing).

But the best deal I found in pre-1933 U.S. gold coins is a $10 Liberty Head coin (with 0.4838 troy ounces of fine gold) in AU condition for 4.2% over spot before eBay Bucks and -7.3% under spot with them.

Now here is where things get really interesting in our search for gold below spot.

If you are willing to be open-minded, you can find foreign gold coins that trade for even lower negative premiums!  I'm referring specifically to British gold sovereigns, 22 karat fine coins containing 0.2354 troy ounces of pure gold.  These classic gold coins circulated throughout the British Empire during the 19th and early 20th century and were considered the soundest money in the world for well over a century.  Gold sovereigns were even struck during the mid-20th century, primarily for use in certain Middle Eastern/South Asian countries that traditionally favored these coins above all others.

 

eBay Bucks Eligible British Gold Sovereigns For Sale

 

Right now you can get yourself a random date BU sovereign from the reign of Queen Elizabeth II for only 3.5% above spot before incentives and -7.9% below spot after eBay Bucks and credit card rewards.  This nearly 8% discount to spot means that you are buying each ounce of gold for about $118 less than the going spot price of gold when it is trading at $1,500.  Now that is a bargain!

But before you dive in, please read the fine print on the eBay Bucks program.  It does have some stipulations and exclusions, as will any credit card rewards program that you use.

Also keep in mind that these gold coin deals are so good that they regularly sell out.  That's why I don't link to the specific coins I've found, because I know that by the time I post this article they will all be gone.  But there will be other deals of the same type that will be just as good, provided you exercise a little patience.  And anything that allows you to buy gold below spot is worth the wait in my book.

 

Read more thought-provoking Antique Sage investing articles here.

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Buying PCGS Old Green Holders & NGC Fatty Holders

Buying PCGS Old Green Holders & NGC Fatty Holders
Photo Credit: Continental Coin and Jewelry

Listen closely, because I'm going to tell you a secret about the rare coin market that every numismatic investor should know.

The field of numismatics is dominated by third-party grading services these days.  Coins submitted to these firms are graded by experienced industry professionals and then sealed in hard, clear polycarbonate cases.  This simple concept revolutionized the trade, giving coin collectors and investors confidence that the coins they're buying are both genuine and properly graded.

However, there is a certain mythology surrounding certified coins housed in PCGS Old Green holders and vintage NGC Fatty Holders.  Coins found in these early holders generally trade for slight premiums over coins of the same grade in more recent PCGS and NGC slabs.

But why is this the case?

In order to understand the reason PCGS Old Green holders and vintage NGC Fatty Holders sell for higher prices than newer slabbed coins, it is necessary to examine the early history of the grading services.

Before the advent of third-party grading, the coin market was the Wild West.  Unscrupulous dealers frequently over-graded the coins they were selling, while simultaneously under-grading any coins they were buying.  Dubious telemarketing firms and boiler room operations cold-called people trying to sell "investment grade" coins that invariably turned out to have been cleaned, damaged, over-graded or otherwise compromised.

Now this might not have mattered for the kid buying a common-date, circulated Mercury dime from his local coin shop.  But it created a major trust problem with more expensive coins that were worth hundreds or even thousands of dollars.  The lack of uniform grading standards was tearing the numismatic community apart.  It wasn't hard to foresee a bleak future where average coin collectors - fed up with grading inconsistencies and problem coins passed off as good - would simply choose to quit collecting.

Something had to be done.

Enter a consortium of professional coin dealers led by legendary numismatist David Hall.  These innovators believed that if coins could be independently graded by a well-respected numismatic organization and then encapsulated in tamper-resistant packaging, it would create a market where these certified, or "slabbed", coins could trade sight unseen as commodities.  The resulting company, PCGS (Professional Coin Grading Service) officially launched in February 1986.  Its primary competitor, NGC (Numismatic Guaranty Corporation), was founded just a year later in 1987.

But in order to convince the market that their new product was worthwhile, the dealers behind PCGS and NGC knew that they had to be scrupulous to a fault with their grading.  If a coin was borderline, it was better to knock it down a grade and preserve the integrity of the firm and, by extension, the entire idea of third-party certification.  As a result, early submissions to both PCGS and NGC were almost always conservatively graded by today's standards.

It was only many years later, as the certified coin market gradually came to mature, that PCGS and NGC found they could relax their grading standards somewhat.  Therefore, collectors and investors tend to place a small premium on coins housed in earlier slabs from either major grading service.

 

PCGS Old Green Holder & NGC Fatty Holder Morgan Silver Dollars for Sale on eBay

 

The very earliest PCGS holders are known in the numismatic community as "Rattlers" because the entombed coin could sometimes move slightly in its case.  These early PCGS cases featured white or green labels and smaller-sized holders compared to more modern slabs.  The company produced Rattlers (PCGS Generation 1.0 to Gen 1.2) from its inception in 1986 until September 1989, when the firm discovered that they could be counterfeited.

PCGS quickly responded to this threat by updating the Rattler with a clear plastic exterior ring, barcoded label and reverse hologram sticker.  These holders are actually old Rattler holders encased in a separate, clear plastic collar.  These more counterfeit-resistant transitional type holders (PCGS Gen 2.0 to Gen 2.2) ran from September 1989 until January 1990.

By early 1990, PCGS had completed the engineering necessary to switch over to a single-piece, stackable holder with the familiar green label and reverse hologram sticker.  These improved Old Green holders (PCGS Gen 3.0 to Gen 3.1) were used from January 1990 to September 1998.  Because of their long production run, these holders constitute the bulk of Old Green holders in existence.  It is important to note that the green label dye color was not always stable on Gen 3.0 slabs, sometimes leading to blue or yellow discoloration.

Because the earliest white label PCGS holders (Gen 1.0 and Gen 1.1) were only used during the first month of the company's operation, they aren't commonly encountered today.  Due to their extreme rarity, these very early white label PCGS holders have an elevated degree of collectability among some coin enthusiasts, even when they don't hold very valuable coins.

In contrast, the beloved Old Green holders span all the way from PCGS Gen 1.2 (first released in February 1986; this first generation were also Rattlers) all the way to PCGS Gen 3.1 holders, which were discontinued in September 1998.  Today's coin collectors and dealers often refer to Older Green holders by the abbreviation "OGH", which you will frequently find used in online auction titles.

Thankfully, NGC's holder history is somewhat less convoluted than PCGS's.  NGC's first slabbed coins came in slick-looking, all-black holders.  But this only lasted from August 1987 until December 1987, when the color was changed to white.  This aesthetic change was made because while the original black background made bright gold and silver coins look stunning, it diminished the visual appeal of bronze and heavily toned silver coins.  The early, all-black NGC holders are considered the most desirable early slab to many collectors, sporting prices that can reach into the thousands of dollars each, regardless of the coin they contain!

All-white NGC holders were produced from December 1987 until 1997 with only minor updates along the way, like the addition of barcoded labels in 1993.  These are the vintage NGC Fatty holders (also known as "Fattie" holders) that many coin buffs treasure today.  These slabs acquired their name because of their distinctively thick, "soap dish" shape, which was replaced in later generations by a slimmer, more streamlined form.

Now that we've got the history out of the way, we can talk more about why you might want to buy PCGS Old Green holders or vintage NGC Fatty holders.

 

PCGS Old Green Holder & NGC Fatty Holder Pre-1933 U.S. Gold Coins for Sale on eBay

 

First, some collectors simply enjoy the history that these older slabs carry with them.  Many of these coins were traded back and forth during the late 1980s certified coin bubble, when Wall Street briefly burst into the numismatic realm.  Investors bid up some coin series, like classic U.S. commemorative coins, to such absurd heights that even now - some 30 years later - prices are still off their all-time highs by as much as 90%!

As an aside, I believe this means it is a great time to buy many series of older, numismatically-oriented coins.  After all, do you know anything else that still costs the same amount of money it did in the 1980s?

But for most collectors and investors, the primary reason to buy PCGS Old Green holders and vintage NGC Fatty holders is because you'll have a better chance of getting a solidly-graded coin for the stated numerical grade.

Even though third-party grading companies strive for consistency, coin grading is an inherently subjective endeavor.  Sometimes graders - even professionals - come to work tired or have an off day.  When the difference between a single numerical grade - like an MS-64 and MS-65 - can be anywhere from hundreds to thousands of dollars, making certain that you're getting what you're paying for can be priceless.

Of course, our discussion of vintage NGC Fatty holders and PCGS Old Green holders wouldn't be complete if we didn't broach the topic of crack-outs and re-submittals.  Older PCGS and NGC slabs were often so conservatively graded that a cottage industry arose in the early 2000s centered on removing (or cracking-out) under-graded coins from their holders and then resubmitting them to the grading services in hopes of acquiring a higher grade.

Cracking coins out of older holders was so lucrative that it kicked off a veritable decade long gold rush from the late 1990s to the late 2000s.  By that time, the third-party grading services had discontinued the strict grading of the PCGS Old Green holder/NGC Fatty holder era.  So a conservatively graded coin in an older holder might very well come back from one of the companies with a one or (very rarely) two grade increase!

Unfortunately, the crack-out gold rush days are long gone.  Most of the coins that could reasonably have been expected to upgrade have already been resubmitted by now.  But that doesn't mean that older PCGS and NGC holder coins aren't still quite desirable.  There are plenty of vintage NGC Fatty holders and PCGS Old Green holders that house really, really nice coins for their grade.  In addition, many collectors feel that vintage holder coins have a better chance of getting CAC approval.

As a final bonus, resubmission upgrades remain a possibility in some niche numismatic markets that have languished since the turn of the millennium.  So common-date Morgan silver dollars, Walking Liberty halves and classic U.S. commemorative halves might provide those with a keen eye the (admittedly slim) possibility of buying a legitimately under-graded coin, as long as you stick to lower priced examples.  This is due to the fact that with these coin series, the value increase from moving, for instance, from MS-62 to MS-63 might not cover the third-party grading service's resubmission fee.

Consequently, PCGS Old Green holders and NGC Fatty holders often command 5% to 15% premiums over newer holder coins of the same type, date, grade and mint.  The next logical step up the value ladder is getting a "green bean" CAC-stickered coin.  But a CAC stickered specimen can set you back an additional 20% to 100% (!) over an identically graded non-CAC coin, depending on a multitude of different variables.  Given the massive price differentials, a lot of value-conscious collectors and investors opt for coins in vintage holders instead.

 

PCGS Old Green Holder & NGC Fatty Holder Classic U.S. Commemorative Coins for Sale on eBay

 

Now for the caveats.

It is vitally important that you buy the coin, not the holder.  An old holder is merely an indicator that a coin might be interesting.  There are, without a doubt, over-graded, thoroughly ugly coins that reside in PCGS Old Green holders and vintage NGC Fatty holders.  It is up to you to avoid these over-graded dogs yourself.

An unethical seller may try to distract you from a lower quality coin by emphasizing the fact that it is housed in a vintage holder.  But that doesn't mean the coin is automatically good.  The old holders simply give you a potential edge in the very competitive world of investment grade numismatics.

I would also like to warn you that PCGS has started to issue coins in "throwback" holders.  These PCGS throwback or retro holders are new issues with "tribute" labels that are similar to those found in older holders.  Happily, they all have a tell which allows for easy identification.  Every PCGS throwback holder has "PCGS GEN X.X" in a shield printed on the rear label.  If you see this, you know it is a new holder.

To the best of my knowledge, NGC has not issued any Fatty/Fattie holders since 1997.

Although they aren't a magic silver bullet, early PCGS Old Green holders and vintage NGC Fatty holders can be a great way for savvy coin investors to pick up solidly graded rare coins at a reasonable price.

 

Read more thought-provoking Antique Sage coin articles here.

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Read in-depth Antique Sage rare coin investment guides here.