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Antique Jewelry Trends – Inflation in 2023 and Beyond

Photo Credit: Vintage Vault Classics

As 2023 unfolds, let's talk for a moment about recent antique jewelry trends. But before we get to the meat of the topic, I'd like to start off with a short story. I promise it's relevant - really!

Not long ago I was browsing listings for vintage and antique jewelry on Etsy, hoping to find a bargain.

This is definitely not as glamorous as it might sound.

My process involves wading through hundreds of listings looking for that one piece that wows me while sporting a reasonable price. These are much harder to find than you might think. In my estimate, only about 25 listings out of 1000 will be worth looking at more closely. Of those 25 listings, only 1 or 2 will be potential buys. That is an ultimate hit rate of 0.1% to 0.2% - not exactly rich pickings!

In any case, I eventually stumbled across a piece that fit my requirements. It was a bold 1940s Retro era floral brooch crafted in sumptuous 14 karat white gold, set with round-cut diamonds and marquise-cut rubies. This brooch had a lot going for it. It weighed in at an extraordinarily heavy 16.3 grams, meaning that the gold content of the piece alone was worth $50 more than the asking price!

It was also set with over two dozen brilliant-cut diamonds of various sizes, totaling more than 2 carats in weight. The large central diamond was not brilliant-cut, but was instead an Old European cut stone that I estimated at close to 40 points in weight. This mix of modern brilliant-cut diamonds and Old European cut diamonds in the same piece wasn't uncommon in 1940s jewelry. In any case, the Retro brooch was stunning; it practically dripped with jewels!

There were however, a couple of things I didn't love about the brooch.

The 17 marquise-cut rubies set at the perimeter of the brooch were all flame fusion synthetics. Although period correct and perfectly acceptable in a vintage piece of this era, I would have of course preferred natural rubies.

The Retro styling of the piece was also imperfect.

While Retro era jewelry is supposed to be bold - and this piece certainly was - it was simultaneously a little unfocused or amorphous in execution. I suspect that the piece was made in the late 1940s/early 1950s during the transition from Retro to Mid-Century design. To the detriment of the piece, it incorporated design elements from both styles.

Sometimes this happens in old jewelry.

Despite these shortcomings, I found the Retro brooch to be a compelling investment. The gold content of the piece more than covered its purchase price; the intrinsic value of the diamonds and any artistic value the brooch had were simply icing on the cake. The asking price was $490, but the seller was having a 30% off sale at the time. As a result, this lovely and authentic Retro brooch could be had for a mere $343!

I placed my order and then eagerly awaited my prize to be shipped.

Unfortunately, life had other plans.

A couple days after placing the order, the seller reached out to inform me that she couldn't find the item in her inventory. Apparently, the brooch had been sold at a trade show a couple months earlier and had subsequently never been marked as sold in her books by accident. And just like that, the deal that I thought was there…evaporated.

I was terribly disappointed, but these things happen.

What this experience really underscored for me was just how difficult it has become to find investment grade vintage karat gold jewelry below the $500 price point in 2023. This troubling antique jewelry trend is a dramatic departure from the situation just a few years ago, when fine vintage material was reasonably plentiful for $400 or even $300. Now those same pieces are only offered for $700 or $800 - sometimes more!

I have some theories about why this happened and what the future may hold for the antique jewelry market.

Vintage Karat Gold Jewelry ($500 to $1,000) for Sale on eBay

As with many things in our lives, the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 is at least partially to blame for the skyrocketing price of fine old jewelry. When people were trapped in their homes due to the lockdowns, some entertained themselves with Netflix, others with online gambling and quite a few, apparently, with online shopping for vintage jewelry.

We don't know how large the influx of new collectors/admirers hunting for sleek Art Deco pendants, whimsical Edwardian rings or bold Retro bracelets was, but it was significant enough to increase prices substantially across the board.

As I previously mentioned, there is vanishingly little good vintage karat gold/platinum jewelry supply left in the market below the $500 price point. There isn't even that much in the $500 to $1,000 range, although there is certainly some. It is only above the psychologically important $1,000 mark that you begin to find plentiful numbers of high quality vintage and antique pieces.

This inflation driven antique jewelry trend has been a long time in coming.

For about 25 years - from the early 1990s to the late 2010s - pricing for fine vintage jewelry was fairly stable, with only modest increases often related to the rising underlying value of a piece's gold or gemstone content. Yes, there were pockets of strength during that time in areas like signed designer pieces (Cartier, Bulgari, Tiffany, Bucheron, etc.) and those set with very valuable stones (superb quality emeralds, rubies, sapphires or diamonds greater than 1 or 2 carats in weight). But for most other segments of the vintage jewelry market, price appreciation proceeded at a leisurely 1% to 3% per annum for better than two decades.

The last few years since 2020 have blown this formerly reliable trend completely out of the water. Now good quality antique jewelry is experiencing 5% to 20% price increases every year - and that is on top of the approximately 50% one-time jump in prices around 2021.

Increased demand from new collectors isn't the only dynamic at work, however.

There is also a persistently shrinking vintage jewelry supply due to the fact that the Silent and Boomer generations who once owned/inherited 1950s and earlier jewelry are now in terminal demographic decline. It is a truism of the estate sale business that the bulk of items found in most liquidating estates will be no older than about 60 years old. This means that most jewelry coming out of estates right now is from the 1960s or later. I explored this concept in greater depth in an article titled "The Demographics of Antiques".

We can therefore infer that older antique jewelry from the 1950s and earlier will only become scarcer as time goes on - with commensurate price increases, of course!

So what is a vintage jewelry connoisseur or investor to do?

Well, I see four possible choices.

First, you could soldier on looking for the few remaining good quality karat gold pieces of vintage jewelry that are still available under $500. It would require a great deal of knowledge and patience for this strategy to pay off. And, unfortunately, the day will eventually come - probably sooner than we would hope - when there is simply nothing worthwhile left to be had at this price point.

I would also like to point out that a lot of the nicer vintage jewelry I've found recently in this category only technically qualifies from a price perspective. In other words, the asking price is $475 or $495 - a stone's throw from $500. I fear that the days of really nice antique pieces being offered at $250 or $300 is probably over.

Vintage Scandinavian Modernist Jewelry for Sale on eBay

Another strategy would be to simply throw in the towel and expand your budget. This would mean moving up to the $500 to $1,000 tier when shopping for antique jewelry. Even here, I don't think there is a great selection available at the moment. But it is definitely a more viable option than trying to bottom-feed below $500.

When shopping in this price range I would emphasize solid karat gold or platinum jewelry that is set with sizable precious stones, if at all possible. In my opinion, it is very difficult to find non-gem set gold jewelry that is investment grade. And while there are always exceptions to every rule, a piece would have to be really special to be investment-oriented without gemstones.

A third approach would be to switch to vintage costume jewelry. The real advantage here is that you would be able to afford the best of the best - the top of the product stack - for under $500. Relatively few costume pieces sell for more than that, although some are starting to.

Vintage costume jewelry was also usually very on-point, stylistically speaking. Costume jewelry manufacturers always embraced the prevailing style trends of their age. So if you crave that big, expensive-looking, gem-studded Retro or Mid-Century look, but have a hopelessly small beer budget, then costume jewelry is a possibility.

Unfortunately, these are the only good things I can say about vintage costume jewelry. Costume jewelry almost always has zero intrinsic value. In addition, it was a mass produced product with no crossover between famous makers of fine jewelry and those of costume jewelry.

Therefore, I don't consider vintage costume jewelry to be investible and do not believe it will have a return profile that is nearly as strong as high quality vintage karat gold jewelry in the future. Vintage costume jewelry appeals to the specialist or casual collector only - not the investor.

A final scenario would be to concentrate on Modernist jewelry from the late 1950s to the 1980s. I especially like Modernist pieces from the Scandinavian countries: Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland.

Most of the Modernist jewelry in this price range will use sterling silver as its primary medium. Nonetheless, its organic shapes, eclectic themes and sweeping lines instinctively appeal to a broad range of people. And few peoples produced vintage Modernist jewelry to the same level of artistic accomplishment as the Scandinavians did.

Although tremendously beautiful, Modernist jewelry is still affordable for two different reasons.

First, it isn't old enough to have rolled off the demographic wave I mentioned earlier. This means it is still relatively abundant in the marketplace. Secondly, Modernist jewelry is often made with lower intrinsic value materials such as sterling silver, quartzes, amber, enamel, etc. This limits the scrap value of most Modernist pieces, helping to keep them in a lower price range.

Photo Credit: inScandinavia

Although relatively inexpensive, this vintage Danish Modernist Sterling silver bracelet from the 1970s is mounted with bright green chrysoprase gemstones which create visual interest.

But don't let the low prices fool you.

Modernist jewelry was often hand-made to a very high artistic and technical standard. In addition, examples of Scandinavian origin were usually at the cutting-edge of style for their era and were often clearly hallmarked as to maker, country, city and date! As an added bonus, it is not uncommon to find mixed metal Modernist jewelry rendered in sterling silver generously accented with solid karat gold elements. This helps separate high quality Modernist jewelry from less intrinsically valuable costume jewelry.

If you are interested in vintage jewelry as an investment and find yourself absolutely unable to exceed the $500 or $600 price barrier, then I wholeheartedly recommend Modernist jewelry as your best option.

For the first time in decades, inflation has finally found its way into the world of vintage jewelry. This is both a good and a bad thing. It is good because people are finally recognizing the value of fine vintage and antique jewelry, which had previously been ignored. But it is also bad because we can no longer buy older, gorgeous jewelry at unbelievably low prices anymore.

But I have a final bit of good news for vintage jewelry connoisseurs and investors. The U.S. economy - and with it the global economy - is almost certainly going to plunge into a severe recession by the end of 2023. When this happens there will be a 6 to 18 month window of temporarily reduced antique jewelry prices. This will give the financially savvy hard asset investor one last chance to snag a bargain in the world of high quality vintage jewelry.

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2023 Antique Buys I Like

One of the recurring themes of my blog is opportunistic investing. I would rather patiently wait to buy the right asset at the right price, rather than throw gobs of money to blindly hit the bid. As 2023 progresses, I believe we will see some juicy deals in the world of antiques.

Ever since the COVID pandemic hit in early 2020, I have favored purchasing pieces that are more liquid rather than less liquid. This can be a challenge in the antiques and tangible asset category where illiquidity abounds.

In the context of antiques, liquidity refers to items that sell for a modest premium over their melt/scrap value. In the circumstances of a forced sale, the worst you will do is recover an object's intrinsic (scrap) value. But when you pay very little over melt value to begin with, any potential loss is strictly limited.

Bullion is obviously the most liquid of tangible assets. But premiums on gold, silver and platinum bullion have been rather high during 2022 as a result of overwhelming retail demand. Precious metal refineries and mints simply can't keep up with demand - something that doesn't look likely to change in 2023.

It is no fun paying a 25% premium over spot for an ordinary tube of generic 1 ounce silver rounds.

In these cases, I have found that buying rare coins, vintage watches or other relatively liquid, high quality antiques is a savvy investment alternative. After all, if you are going to pay an elevated premium over intrinsic value anyway, it is much better to buy a piece with some dimension of collectible, historical or cultural value instead of a modern bullion coin or ingot with little hope of ever trading as more than bullion.

As 2022 rolls into 2023, I wanted to let you peak over my shoulder at two of my recent trades that are perfect examples of investing in liquid antiques.

The first purchase was an 1878 U.S. Liberty head $5 half eagle gold coin I found while browsing Etsy. I'm a big fan of investing in lightly circulated, common date pre-1933 U.S. semi-numismatic gold coins in the current environment. They combine a solid cornerstone of bullion value with a generous dollop of numismatic potential. If they can be found for the right price (generally between a 10% and 50% premium over spot), they represent compelling tangible investments.

Photo Credit: AtlanticCollectiShop

Luckily for me, the price was right.

The seller had recently cut the asking price of the coin to $575. I also had a 5% discount code that the seller had previously sent me after I had added the piece to my watchlist about a week earlier. After applying the coupon the final price was $546.25, which represented a very reasonable 35% premium over melt value.

I was sold.

This particular gold half eagle ticked a lot of my checkboxes. First, the piece had been slabbed by PCGS - a well respected third-party grading service. This not only guarantees the authenticity of the coin, but also provides a professional opinion on its grade. Third-party grading is a godsend in the world of coin collecting, where small differences in grade can impact the value of a rare coin by hundreds or even thousands of dollars.

In this case, the assigned grade was AU-55. AU is shorthand for About Uncirculated. This is considered a higher grade among coin collectors - the last stop before encountering the highest tier of grades (Uncirculated pieces). According to PCGS, a coin in this condition shows "slight wear on the high points with minor friction in the fields. Luster can range from almost nonexistent to virtually full, but it will be missing from the high points."

In fact, I often prefer buying AU-55 or AU-58 coins over ostensibly higher graded MS-60 or MS-61 coins of the same type. Why? Because lower Mint State (MS) coins are often ugly specimens covered in bagmarks, hairlines and ugly toning. A nice AU coin will technically have wear, but is often extremely attractive otherwise.

And in coin collecting eye appeal is everything.

In this instance, our gold half eagle exhibited excellent eye appeal characterized by wonderfully original surfaces. It is common for old gold coins to have been cleaned at some point in the past in a futile attempt to improve their appearance. This almost always destroys their decades-old patina, resulting in a brassy, unnaturally bright tone. A cleaned coin without its original patina is always worth less than one with its patina intact.

Happily, our example avoided this unpleasant fate.

Another attractive feature of the gold half eagle I purchased was its date. Although an 1878 $5 gold piece from the Philadelphia Mint is considered common date, it is still 144 year old and from a near-mythological era in American history. This coin could have been present during the shootout at the O.K. Corral in 1881. It might have graced the pocket of inventor Thomas Edison at his Menlo Park laboratory during the 1880s. It may have witnessed the devastation of the San Francisco earthquake of 1906.

History becomes real. And you can hold it in your hand.

The final factor that made this U.S. $5 gold coin so desirable was, once again, its encapsulation by PCGS. The style of PCGS holder that housed the coin is known as an Old Green Holder, or OGH for short. These are vintage holders that PCGS employed between 1986 and 1998. They are in high demand by collectors for two different reasons.

PCGS OGH & NGC Old Fatty Certified Pre-1933 U.S. Gold Coins for Sale on eBay

First, Old Green Holders are collectible in their own right. PCGS last issued them around 25 years ago. The earliest examples are over 35 years old and were present during the infamous late 1980s certified coin bubble. All Old Green Holders are vintage pieces by now and many collectors enjoy owning them for their own sake, even if they don't hold particularly rare or expensive coins.

The second reason Old Green Holders are typically bid at a premium is because third-party grading is widely regarded as having been more conservative in the early years of the industry. This means there is a greater chance that a coin housed in an OGH is a premium quality example within its stated grade. In rare instances, coins in OGHs have been resubmitted to the grading services and come back as the next higher grade!

Coin grading is ultimately subjective, so some slight variation is to be expected. This is true even when a coin is evaluated by expert graders. However, Old Green Holders have developed a durable reputation for housing solidly graded coins. As a result the market often bids them at a 5% to 10% premium to identical coins with the same numerical grade from the same grading service, but housed in later holders.

Our 1878 U.S. gold half eagle scored particularly well on this metric.

Its OGH is Gen. 3.1, which was issued between 1993 and 1998. This is especially desirable because it is a gold coin housed in an OGH - and a 19th century gold coin at that! So if a collector wants an OGH that houses a classic, pre-1933 U.S. gold coin with a lot of eye appeal, this example would be one of the most affordable and accessible candidates available.

A collector could also opt to purchase a similarly priced ($400 to $700) slabbed $1 Liberty/Princess head gold coin or a $2.5 Liberty/Indian head gold coin. But these specimens would be much smaller and less visually impressive than a $5 half eagle. On the other hand, $10 Liberty head eagles are another reasonable choice, but also sell for more than twice the price. A slabbed $10 Liberty head gold coin, even if only in AU-50 condition, would cost at least $1,200 in today's market - even more if housed in an OGH.

In any case, I can only see pre-1933 semi-numismatic U.S. gold coins becoming more valuable as 2023 progresses - especially those housed in vintage NGC or PCGS holders.

Moving on from the space of numismatics, I have another vintage purchase that I wanted to document.

I sometimes search Etsy and eBay for jewelry categories that are overlooked in today's fashion world, such as brooches or cufflinks. Because these types of jewelry are out of style today, it is sometimes possible to find great bargains on vintage or antique pieces.

As I was browsing Etsy, I stumbled across a magnificent pair of estate 18 karat yellow gold leopard-print pattern cufflinks listed for $350. The first thing that caught my eye about these cufflinks was their unusual leopard pattern motif. The unique design had been cleverly applied via a crosshatched Florentine finish. I had never seen anything quite like it before - a pair of Florentine leopard print cufflinks! It absolutely screamed outrageous 1980s fashion, although they could have been made anywhere from the mid 1970s to the early 1990s.

Photo Credit: TheButlerDidItInCB

The other interesting thing about the cufflinks is that they were marked 750, a reference to 750/1000 - the purity of the metal. 750 indicates a European origin and is equivalent to 75% fine or 18 karat gold. This is a high purity gold alloy that is typically used in fine or designer jewelry.

Unfortunately, I was unable to decipher the other hallmarks on the cufflinks, so I couldn't narrow down the piece's country of origin or maker.

Now all of this information was mildly intriguing to me, but not nearly enough for me to entertain purchasing the cufflinks.

What did tip the scales for me was when I saw the weight of the piece stated in the item description - 13 grams. This is a very substantial weight for a pair of cufflinks, reflecting not only the high density of 18 karat gold, but also the excellent build quality of the jewelry. Cheap karat gold jewelry is almost always as thin and light as the manufacturer can make it in order to save on material costs, while expensive karat gold jewelry is usually much heavier in weight.

13 grams is almost obscenely heavy for a pair of cufflinks. To give some perspective, I consider less than 6 grams to be a light-weight pair of cufflinks, 6 to 9 grams to be medium-weight and 9 to 12 grams to be heavy-weight. 13 grams is off the high end of the scale!

Now that I had the weight and purity of the piece, I could calculate a scrap value.

In these situations I always assume the true purity of the jewelry in question is lower than its stated/stamped purity. This is because the enforcement of hallmarking laws varied widely from country to country and it was common in certain regions for some fabricators to cheat on their gold content just a little to squeeze out a slightly higher profit margin. In this case, I assumed the cufflinks in question were only 70% fine gold instead of 75% fine.

I also applied a 95% payable gold rate on top of the assumed 70% purity. This is due to the fact that if I ever chose to scrap the jewelry, I would have to pay the refinery their cut. Each refinery has its own fee schedule, so refining charges can vary. However, I have found that it is pretty common for legitimate refineries to charge no more than 5% of recoverable gold. These charges may be lower, especially if you are sending in a larger lot containing several troy ounces or more of recoverable gold.

So the final formula calculation was 13 grams (gross weight) x 0.7 (fineness) x 0.95 (refinery payable gold) x $1710 (gold spot price at the time of purchase) = $475. Remember, the cufflinks were listed for just $350. So a $475 scrap value equates to $125 in free gold!

Now I was sold!

Vintage 14 Karat & 18 Karat Gold Cufflinks for Sale on eBay

The fact that these 18 karat gold leopard print cufflinks were high quality designer jewelry dripping with opulent 1980s style was simply icing on the cake. Once purchased, I have the option of either scrapping the cufflinks outright or holding onto them for their potentially higher resale value as vintage jewelry. For now I'm patiently holding them.

These are the kinds of deals I like the most, although they are very difficult to come by. After all, few people are willing to sell jewelry below its melt value!

As 2022 comes to a close and 2023 arrives, I am more convinced than ever that high quality antiques represent one of the best investments you can make in today's treacherous financial markets. Provided you don't overpay, I simply don't see how you can go wrong.

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2020 Antiques Market Update

Photo Credit: Tom Hilton

2020 has been an eventful year in the antiques market. Hell, 2020 has been an eventful year in just every other market too. As we all know, the coronavirus pandemic struck a major blow to the global economy. Of course, the real problem wasn't the artificially induced economic standstill - an unintended side effect from the lockdowns meant to control the spread of the virus. Instead, it was the fact that this act radically destabilized the "Everything Bubble" that had pervaded the global securities markets for nearly a decade.

We currently are in the midst of the knock-on effects from this historic (and ongoing) economic debacle.

To say the 2020 antiques market has been tumultuous is an understatement. We are seeing a plethora of cross-currents pulling the market in different directions simultaneously. The situation is, to put it mildly, confusing. But I'll try to untangle some of the 2020 antiques market trends that I've been seeing.

First up, I want to talk about the bullion market. This might seem a like an odd topic to bring up when talking about antiques, but precious metals are a major component in many fine vintage items (particularly those that are considered investment grade). So it is quite pertinent, in my opinion.

Well, the precious metals market experienced a massive shortage starting in March of 2020. Silver, gold and platinum coins and bars disappeared from both physical and online coin dealers, shooting premiums through the roof for any remaining inventory you could find. Even as I write this in July 2020, the bullion market has not yet fully recovered from its annus horribilis.

This feeds into our first 2020 antiques market trend: rising prices for old gold and silver coins - but only in the low-end of the market. This means that worn or common collector coins that sell primarily based on the value of their contained gold or silver have risen with the strong bullion market. But, paradoxically, better date or higher grade coins that typically sell for high premiums over their melt value have tended to stagnate or even decline slightly in price.

So for example, I purchased a pair of common date Morgan silver dollars in decent circulated condition for $43 from eBay in February 2020. Fast forward to today (July 2020) and the exact same eBay seller is listing very similar Morgan silver dollars for $57 a pair. That is a price increase of over 32% in just a few months! And people are willingly paying that new, higher price too.

But if you take a look at slabbed common date Morgans in MS-63, MS-64 and MS-65 conditions - classic collector coins - you will find that prices have barely budged from earlier this year. In other words, it costs more to get into the low-end of the coin market while better condition coins languish due to the economic apocalypse. It also means that a relatively small step up in price will often get you a dramatically better piece.

NGC & PCGS Certified MS64 Morgan Silver Dollars For Sale

Antique sterling silverware has also been plagued by similar tendencies to the coin market. Premiums on sets of sterling flatware have been trending downward for more than a decade now, but prices have ultimately been supported by the underlying scrap value of silver. Only desirable makers and patterns garnered continued interest and strong bids during this period of decline. But during the chaotic 2020 antiques market, premiums on sterling flatware and hollowware have more or less collapsed.

Whereas before sets of silver from renowned luxury makers such as Tiffany & Co. or Puiforcat were still able to reliably command high prices, now even these storied brands are feeling the undertow of our Greater Depression. Lately I've seen many eBay listings for sterling pieces by respected makers like Gorham, Birks and yes, even Tiffany, go for not much more than melt value. This is an undeniably monumental development. It is clear evidence that the progressive and ongoing impoverishment of the middle class is effectively crashing the 2020 antiques market.

Vintage watches are the next category of antiques I wanted to talk about. As you can probably guess, the trend here has been quite similar to what we've already seen with rare coins and sterling silverware. The low-end of the vintage watch market is still fairly robust, with over 10,000 watches changing hands on eBay in the $150 to $500 price bracket over the past few months. But volume drops off precipitously at higher prices, with less than 900 watches selling on eBay in the $2,000 to $10,000 price range over that same period of time.

Many fine antique wristwatches go begging for a bid in this environment. It is all too common to see stately, older Hamiltons, Lord Elgins and Bulovas sell for little more than the value of their gold cases. Even watches from hallowed European makers such as Omega, Longines and Universal Genève can struggle to surpass the $700 price point. Only the very strongest brands - the Rolexes, Patek Philippes and Vacheron Constantins - still command top dollar in today's vintage watch world.

Not every aspect of the 2020 antiques market is gloom and doom however.

There is anecdotal evidence that the antiques trade is finally completing the painful transition to online sales - a trend that many old-time dealers fiercely resisted for many years. It appears that Covid-19 simply accelerated the movement to online-only sales that was already evident for more than a decade beforehand. Of course, the downside to this sea change is that many small antique shops with physical storefronts will not reopen in the wake of the pandemic.

Online sales are ultimately a very good thing for the antiques industry. They allow a larger pool of sellers to connect with a motivated throng of buyers. And, honestly, the antiques market needs to make this transition or risk fading into permanent irrelevancy. Despite the short-term teething pains this might cause some people involved in the antiques business, it is still for the best in the long-term.

But the aspect of the 2020 antiques market that I find most intriguing is the increasing trend for Millennials and Generation Xers to buy antiques and vintage collectibles as investment vehicles. After all, if your savings account is going to yield zero interest pretty much forever, why not turn your wealth into physical objects? You'll have a much better chance of preserving your purchasing power with a carefully chosen portfolio of fine antiques than you will gambling in our insane casino stock market.

Vintage Wristwatches For Sale

The only downside I see is that many people new to the field of antiques are buying vintage 1980s and 1990s collectibles, rather than older antiques with an established track record. This is to be expected as middle aged people have a tendency to purchase items they fondly remember from their youth, thus driving up prices for those items. But this trend has a dark side too. 1980s and 1990s collectibles will predictably rise in price until their demographic tailwind is exhausted. At that point, everyone will try to sell, but to whom?

In the year 2040, no one will want your Alf memorabilia.

This is why I recommend that antique investors stick to classic, high-intrinsic value antiques such as rare coins, vintage wristwatches, antique jewelry and sterling silverware. These are categories that have stood the test of time, reliably appreciating over decades, if not centuries. And as an added bonus, these older, established antiques are currently selling for ridiculously low prices relative to stocks and bonds.

I say that if the 2020 antiques market insists on offering us such grand bargains, we would be foolish not to accept them. Invest accordingly.

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Understanding Price Trends in the Collectibles Market

Photo Credit: Michel Ngilen

Collectibles price trends are a hot topic in the vintage item marketplace. And for good reason. Everyone wants to know which collectibles will appreciate in value over the next few years and which ones should be unloaded now before the price collapses.

Although few know about it, collectibles price trends actually follow a predictable life cycle.

A large source of demand for vintage items comes from people who were exposed to them when they were children or teenagers. This interaction could have taken place anywhere: at school, a friend's house, their grandparent's or in the child's own home. The only important factor is that a young person sees, touches and experiences these items during his formative years - roughly between the ages of 5 and 20. As these children grow up and become adults, it is natural to want to recapture that spark of happiness by reacquiring the fondly-remembered collectibles of their youth.

In other words, nostalgia is a major driving force in the price trends of collectibles.

This won't come as any surprise to people with intimate knowledge of the vintage and antique marketplace. But it does allow us to formulate interesting projections of collectibles price trends based on demographics (and simple math).

So let's start with one immutable fact: most collectors are between the ages of 30 and 65. Now you might ask, "Collectors of what?" The answer to this is: anything!

People tend to be most acquisitive during middle age. This is when they have the most disposable income and strongest psychological motivation. Before their 30s, most people are concerned with making friends, having fun and finding a significant other. After the age of 65, many people are constrained by lower incomes in retirement, smaller living spaces, or the onset of ill health.

So before the age of 30, few people are hard-core collectors. After the age of 65, even formerly hard-core collectors are gradually forced to either buy less or possibly disgorge their collections. Therefore, collectors tend to be most active between their 30s and 60s, when lifestyle conditions are close to perfect. And although there will always be exceptions to this rule, we only care that it is true in a broad, statistical sense (i.e. this is the way it works in large populations).

With this information we can forecast demand trends for collectibles based on their era.

As I write this, the year is 2020. So 65 year olds (the trailing edge of the collector demographic) were born in 1955. But they may remember items they came into contact with at an early age, perhaps as young as 5. So collectibles from the year 1960 (and later) will be in general demand. Likewise, 30 year olds, born in the year 1990, represent the leading edge of the collector demographic. These people might be interested in items from the mid to late 1990s.

The time period between the leading and trailing edge of the collecting demographic represents the sweet spot for vintage items. So right now, in the year 2020, items from circa 1960 to 1995 are in the highest demand. Prices for collectibles at the leading edge of the wave will tend to ramp quickly as new collectors age into their 30s and begin to show an interest in them. By the same token, as 65 year olds begin to age out of the collecting demographic, price trends for those collectibles at the trailing edge of the wave will rapidly turn negative.

We can see this collectibles market trend in action right now.

Early 8-bit and 16-bit video games from famous consoles such as the Nintendo NES, Super Nintendo and Sega Genesis have skyrocketed in value over the past decade. These games were originally released in the late 1980s to mid 1990s, but became obsolete long ago due to technological advancements in computer graphics and sound.

However, that hasn't stopped legions of 30 and 40-somethings from rediscovering their childhood treasures as adults. It was once possible to buy old game cartridges from hallowed gaming series like Castlevania, Duck Tales or Mortal Combat for a dollar or two at garage sales or flea markets. But over the past 10 to 12 years prices have increased tremendously.

For example, a used copy of the 1994 Sega Genesis game Castlevania Bloodlines now sells for around $50, versus just $10 dollars back in 2007. If you happen to have a gently used copy with its papers and original box intact, the price shoots up to nearly $150.

Price Trend for Sega Genesis game Castlevania Bloodlines

Price trend for the Sega Genesis game Castlevania Bloodlines

Photo Credit: Price Charting

There are other collectibles from the late 1980s/early 1990s that are increasing in value as well. Certain comic books, movie posters and toys from this era have enjoyed strongly rising price trends as the demographic winds have been at their back.

But although the sun may be rising for 1990s collectibles, time is the enemy for collectibles on the other side of the trend. In particular, pop culture kitsch from the 1950s and early 1960s is starting to feel the chill from an increasingly elderly collecting demographic.

Two great examples of these price trends are Elvis and Hopalong Cassidy memorabilia. Elvis is the iconic 1950s/1960s singer who popularized rock and roll. He was (and still is for the most part) a household name, who inspired legions of devoted fans. But those Elvis fans who were teenagers in the 1950s are in their 70s today. As a result, the market for Elvis collectibles, after having held strong for many decades, is collapsing.

The same story holds true for Hopalong Cassidy, a children's television hero from the 1950s. Although millions of fans enjoyed his TV adventures during their childhood, the demand for Hopalong Cassidy collectibles is nearly gone today.

In both cases, prices for paraphernalia associated with these two 1950s personalities have crashed. And honestly, it won't be too long before the same thing happens to pop culture collectibles from the 1960s. This doesn't bode well for Rolling Stones or Beatles collectors.

But our thesis also applies to broad collectibles price trends beyond just famous personalities. Right now Mid-Century - especially Mid-Century furniture - is in style. So prices for these pieces are relatively high. But Mid-Century collectibles are also at the trailing edge of the demographic wave.

Therefore we can surmise that vintage Mid-Century furniture will get hit two-fold in the years ahead. First, its natural buying demographic will start to age-out. This is inevitable, unavoidable and quite devastating by itself. But a secondary negative factor for Mid-Century furniture is that its characteristic streamlined look will eventually fall out of favor as decorating tastes naturally change.

So don't buy Mid-Century furniture today if future returns are important to you.

And don't make the mistake of believing that collectible price trends are permanent for items that are currently gaining popularity. Although some 1990s video games and comic books have done tremendously well over the past several years, their time in the sun isn't forever. One day they too will follow in the footsteps of Elvis memorabilia, ending up in trash cans and land-fills.

Vintage Super Nintendo Game Cartridges for Sale on eBay

This is one of the reasons why I invest exclusively in "classic" antiques. By this I mean items that are made from precious metals, gemstones, exotic woods or other high quality materials. I also prefer to buy items that were made before 1950 (although this isn't an absolute necessity). Price trends for items made before 1950 have already rolled off the demographically-driven wave, meaning that fad-related demand is usually non-existent. It is also helpful if an item has a well-established collector's market with a century or more of stable demand.

So the antiques I tend to buy occupy a pretty short list. I like old coins, vintage wristwatches, antique jewelry and other similarly compact, high-value items.

As always, my humble advice to others is to always buy what you like. After all, you're the one collecting it. Just realize that many collectibles will end up being worth very little after they hit about 60 years in age. Only the really worthwhile stuff retains value after that.

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