The decline of physical antique stores in the United States has been brutal and swift. In the late 1990s - a mere 20 years ago - almost every small town, rural outpost and city neighborhood had one or more quaint antique shops. But the passing years have not been kind to these noble sentinels of the past. While there are no hard statistics available, in my experience more than half of all physical antique stores have closed over the last couple of decades. For example, see my article on The Great Boston Antique Store Massacre. And these shops are not being replaced. While there are several different factors behind the trend, it is an undeniable sea change in the industry.
Antique shops' natural market, Baby Boomers, have begun their long march into the green pastures of retirement. But a side effect of this situation is that many of the notoriously acquisitive generation are beginning to downsize their living arrangements. And downsizing translates into selling stuff. So collectibles, obsolete electronics, old exercise equipment and closets full of outdated clothing are going into Salvation Army donation bins or getting sold off for a few dollars at the local neighborhood garage sale. And people who are liquidating stuff are not people who are buying stuff, especially not stuff from antique stores.
It is also difficult to overstate the impact that the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 has had on antique stores. That massive financial dislocation gutted the market for dozens of collectible categories nearly overnight. Few people today, in the wake of the economic disaster, have the discretionary income to indulge in unnecessary dust catchers anymore. Before 2008, many collectible categories like glass, figurines, memorabilia, quilts, furniture, etc., used to be longtime mainstays of the antique industry. But suddenly because of the crisis, antique dealers lost a large part of their regular sales. And there was no product segment to fill the gap. Add to that the pressure from continually rising commercial rents and soon many antique dealers found themselves in financial trouble. Some dealers struggled on for a few years past the initial crash, hoping things would turn around. But once it became clear that a recovery was not on the horizon, these holdout dealers finally capitulated and went out of business.
The last reason physical antique stores have largely disappeared is due to the rise of the internet. As the pool of potential buyers has thinned, many antique dealers have migrated online, setting up shops on sites like Etsy, eBay or Ruby Lane. Online stores have much lower overhead than physical stores, so fewer sales are needed to cover fixed expenses. There is no rent to pay or sales staff to hire. In addition, an online antique shop immediately gains access to potential buyers all over the world and can effortlessly consummate sales at any time of the day or night. These advantages are the final nail in the coffin for physical antique stores, leading many dealers to close their storefronts and switch to selling online exclusively.
While it is obvious that most physical antique stores will be going the way of the dinosaurs, I do not think they will disappear altogether. I imagine that some antique stores in urban areas with a large enough population density to support them will be able to soldier on, carving out solid niches in their communities. These survivors will probably cater to the successful professional classes. I expect they will tend to carry either high-quality, high-priced traditional antiques or funky, vintage upcycled decorative items. They would be worth visiting, if you can find one and have the money to spare.
I also want to be clear that I do not believe the decline of the collectibles market or physical antique shops implies anything about the future prospects for investment grade antiques. Yes, people have discovered that they can live happily with much less junk in their lives. But investment grade antiques are not junk. They are the best of the best in the antiques market - a highly selective group of dazzling art that drips with style and history. And they are portable as well, so space is rarely a constraint. The world of antique stores may be changing forever, but investment grade antiques still have a bright future ahead of them.
