Photo Credit: Michel Ngilen
Collectibles price trends are a hot topic in the vintage item marketplace. And for good reason. Everyone wants to know which collectibles will appreciate in value over the next few years and which ones should be unloaded now before the price collapses.
Although few know about it, collectibles price trends actually follow a predictable life cycle.
A large source of demand for vintage items comes from people who were exposed to them when they were children or teenagers. This interaction could have taken place anywhere: at school, a friend's house, their grandparent's or in the child's own home. The only important factor is that a young person sees, touches and experiences these items during his formative years - roughly between the ages of 5 and 20. As these children grow up and become adults, it is natural to want to recapture that spark of happiness by reacquiring the fondly-remembered collectibles of their youth.
In other words, nostalgia is a major driving force in the price trends of collectibles.
This won't come as any surprise to people with intimate knowledge of the vintage and antique marketplace. But it does allow us to formulate interesting projections of collectibles price trends based on demographics (and simple math).
So let's start with one immutable fact: most collectors are between the ages of 30 and 65. Now you might ask, "Collectors of what?" The answer to this is: anything!
People tend to be most acquisitive during middle age. This is when they have the most disposable income and strongest psychological motivation. Before their 30s, most people are concerned with making friends, having fun and finding a significant other. After the age of 65, many people are constrained by lower incomes in retirement, smaller living spaces, or the onset of ill health.
So before the age of 30, few people are hard-core collectors. After the age of 65, even formerly hard-core collectors are gradually forced to either buy less or possibly disgorge their collections. Therefore, collectors tend to be most active between their 30s and 60s, when lifestyle conditions are close to perfect. And although there will always be exceptions to this rule, we only care that it is true in a broad, statistical sense (i.e. this is the way it works in large populations).
With this information we can forecast demand trends for collectibles based on their era.
As I write this, the year is 2020. So 65 year olds (the trailing edge of the collector demographic) were born in 1955. But they may remember items they came into contact with at an early age, perhaps as young as 5. So collectibles from the year 1960 (and later) will be in general demand. Likewise, 30 year olds, born in the year 1990, represent the leading edge of the collector demographic. These people might be interested in items from the mid to late 1990s.
The time period between the leading and trailing edge of the collecting demographic represents the sweet spot for vintage items. So right now, in the year 2020, items from circa 1960 to 1995 are in the highest demand. Prices for collectibles at the leading edge of the wave will tend to ramp quickly as new collectors age into their 30s and begin to show an interest in them. By the same token, as 65 year olds begin to age out of the collecting demographic, price trends for those collectibles at the trailing edge of the wave will rapidly turn negative.
We can see this collectibles market trend in action right now.
Early 8-bit and 16-bit video games from famous consoles such as the Nintendo NES, Super Nintendo and Sega Genesis have skyrocketed in value over the past decade. These games were originally released in the late 1980s to mid 1990s, but became obsolete long ago due to technological advancements in computer graphics and sound.
However, that hasn't stopped legions of 30 and 40-somethings from rediscovering their childhood treasures as adults. It was once possible to buy old game cartridges from hallowed gaming series like Castlevania, Duck Tales or Mortal Combat for a dollar or two at garage sales or flea markets. But over the past 10 to 12 years prices have increased tremendously.
For example, a used copy of the 1994 Sega Genesis game Castlevania Bloodlines now sells for around $50, versus just $10 dollars back in 2007. If you happen to have a gently used copy with its papers and original box intact, the price shoots up to nearly $150.
Price trend for the Sega Genesis game Castlevania Bloodlines
Photo Credit: Price Charting
There are other collectibles from the late 1980s/early 1990s that are increasing in value as well. Certain comic books, movie posters and toys from this era have enjoyed strongly rising price trends as the demographic winds have been at their back.
But although the sun may be rising for 1990s collectibles, time is the enemy for collectibles on the other side of the trend. In particular, pop culture kitsch from the 1950s and early 1960s is starting to feel the chill from an increasingly elderly collecting demographic.
Two great examples of these price trends are Elvis and Hopalong Cassidy memorabilia. Elvis is the iconic 1950s/1960s singer who popularized rock and roll. He was (and still is for the most part) a household name, who inspired legions of devoted fans. But those Elvis fans who were teenagers in the 1950s are in their 70s today. As a result, the market for Elvis collectibles, after having held strong for many decades, is collapsing.
The same story holds true for Hopalong Cassidy, a children's television hero from the 1950s. Although millions of fans enjoyed his TV adventures during their childhood, the demand for Hopalong Cassidy collectibles is nearly gone today.
In both cases, prices for paraphernalia associated with these two 1950s personalities have crashed. And honestly, it won't be too long before the same thing happens to pop culture collectibles from the 1960s. This doesn't bode well for Rolling Stones or Beatles collectors.
But our thesis also applies to broad collectibles price trends beyond just famous personalities. Right now Mid-Century - especially Mid-Century furniture - is in style. So prices for these pieces are relatively high. But Mid-Century collectibles are also at the trailing edge of the demographic wave.
Therefore we can surmise that vintage Mid-Century furniture will get hit two-fold in the years ahead. First, its natural buying demographic will start to age-out. This is inevitable, unavoidable and quite devastating by itself. But a secondary negative factor for Mid-Century furniture is that its characteristic streamlined look will eventually fall out of favor as decorating tastes naturally change.
So don't buy Mid-Century furniture today if future returns are important to you.
And don't make the mistake of believing that collectible price trends are permanent for items that are currently gaining popularity. Although some 1990s video games and comic books have done tremendously well over the past several years, their time in the sun isn't forever. One day they too will follow in the footsteps of Elvis memorabilia, ending up in trash cans and land-fills.
Vintage Super Nintendo Game Cartridges for Sale on eBay
This is one of the reasons why I invest exclusively in "classic" antiques. By this I mean items that are made from precious metals, gemstones, exotic woods or other high quality materials. I also prefer to buy items that were made before 1950 (although this isn't an absolute necessity). Price trends for items made before 1950 have already rolled off the demographically-driven wave, meaning that fad-related demand is usually non-existent. It is also helpful if an item has a well-established collector's market with a century or more of stable demand.
So the antiques I tend to buy occupy a pretty short list. I like old coins, vintage wristwatches, antique jewelry and other similarly compact, high-value items.
As always, my humble advice to others is to always buy what you like. After all, you're the one collecting it. Just realize that many collectibles will end up being worth very little after they hit about 60 years in age. Only the really worthwhile stuff retains value after that.
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