Photo Credit (CC 2.0 license): Dennis Amith
I was recently a guest on Harry Rinker's antique-themed radio talk show "Whatcha Got?" We had an animated discussion about a range of antique-related topics, and I encourage you to listen to the archived show if you haven't already.
Unfortunately, I felt that Harry and I sometimes talked past one another due to our different perspectives on the industry. Harry is one of the venerable old guard, having been in the industry since the 1970s. My background is a unique fusion of traditional financial services professional, precious metal historian and antique collector. It isn't surprising that Harry Rinker and I have differing viewpoints on the antiques industry.
To me the antiques market breaks down into two major categories: investment grade pieces and everything else, which I generally refer to as collectibles. To Harry, every individual antique category (glassware, furniture, etc.) is sovereign, with a low-end, mid-range and high-end all to itself.
During our talk, Harry made one statement related to these implicit beliefs that stood out to me in retrospect. It was about Hopalong Cassidy, a heroic cowboy character whose adventures in novels, movies, television and radio made him wildly popular with children from the 1930s through the 1950s. I will fully quote Harry's comment here for context:
I sold off my Hoppy [Hopalong Cassidy] collection way too late, but I could buy it back today for 10 cents on the dollar because people who collect Hopalong Cassidy stuff are gone.
Now, I don't want anyone to think I am belittling or ridiculing Harry Rinker. He was nothing but a gracious host to me during our talk. And he has decades more experience on the dealer side of the antiques industry than I have (or probably ever will).
But believing, implicitly or otherwise, that your Hopalong Cassidy collectibles will appreciate in value over time is just bizarre to me. In my opinion, there is no such thing as an investment grade Hopalong Cassidy collectible. It is sort of like thinking your collection of 1980s Alf memorabilia or your modern-day shrine to Katy Perry are good investments. You can certainly hold that opinion, but it is unlikely to be validated over time.
Does pop culture memorabilia occasionally appreciate in value? Sure! But it is generally driven by demographics and fads. And, as Harry Rinker so perceptively noted, the people who grew up with Hopalong Cassidy are either dying off or not collecting anymore. Unless that fading demographic trend gets an unexpected assist from an oddly specific mid-20th century children's television hero revival, there will only be fewer Hopalong Cassidy fans in the future.
Alf collectibles and Katy Perry memorabilia are no different. They will each have their day in the sun as kids who grew up with them reach middle age (Alf is there right now). Then they will ride off into a long, slow metaphorical sunset. In short, pop culture collectibles don't make any sense as long-term investments!
As an aside, because the subject of Alf came up, I feel compelled to insert a Simpson's quote here. As Bart's friend, Milhouse, stated so eloquently, "Remember Alf? He's back…in pog form." Now that I have that out of my system, we can go back to talking about serious adult things again!
We can objectively evaluate the desirability of Hopalong Cassidy collectibles in greater detail by referring to the Antique Sage's 5 rules for investment grade antiques. In order to be desirable, an antique must have portability, durability and scarcity, in addition to being high quality in both materials and craftsmanship. Finally, it must also possess good zeitgeist, or cultural relevancy to the period in which it was created.
How do Hopalong Cassidy collectibles measure up? Unsurprisingly, they fail the 5 rules of investment grade antiques. First, primarily being children's toys and accessories, they are almost universally poor quality, having been made from plastic, die cast, paper and other low-end materials. Now, vintage Hopalong Cassidy memorabilia might be good quality relative to the junky Chinese toys that are foisted on us today, but the Antique Sage quality metric is an absolute standard, not a relative one.
As a consequence of their low quality materials and middling construction, Hopalong Cassidy collectibles have poor durability as well. Another investment grade attribute, scarcity, is also lacking due to the mass produced nature of these children's toys. The overwhelming abundance of Hopalong Cassidy memorabilia is particularly apparent when compared to lackluster (and falling) demand.
We can check this assertion by performing a quick eBay search, which reveals over 4,600 Hopalong Cassidy collectibles available on the online platform as of the spring of 2018. That hardly seems scarce to me!
These 20th century children's accessories do better on the final two traits, portability and zeitgeist. I would say that Hopalong Cassidy collectibles maybe score a 3 or 4 out of 5 on the zeitgeist scale. This is good, but not perfect. For example, I think vintage baseball cards from the same time period (the 1930s through the 1950s) have better zeitgeist.
As for portability, Hopalong Cassidy collectibles tend to be compact and, therefore, score fairly well here. Of course, this is cold comfort to any Hopalong Cassidy fans who might have had visions of selling off their extensive collections in order to fund a cruise around the world.
My conclusion is straightforward. In order to be considered investment grade, an antique should ideally score well on all five of the Antique Sage's requirements. As a concession to reality, however, I do allow for a mediocre score on any one attribute. Unfortunately, Hopalong Cassidy collectibles falls well short of these requirements.
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