Daniel Carr & The Moonlight Mint – Overstrikes, Bullion & Fantasy Coins

Daniel Carr & The Moonlight Mint - Overstrikes, Bullion & Fantasy Coins
Photo Credit: South Street Coin Company
Here is a stunning example of a 2011-dated 1000 Amero fantasy coin issued in pure .999 fine gold by Daniel Carr.  Overstrike, fantasy and bullion coins privately-struck by Daniel Carr and his Moonlight Mint have enjoyed strong secondary market prices due to robust collector demand.

Daniel Carr and his Moonlight Mint products are one of the best kept secrets in coin collecting.  He produces absolutely sublime coins - usually in ultra-high relief with proof-like surfaces.  His pieces call out to you to be possessed and cherished, before being passed onto future generations.

Yet when I first heard about him, I had a hard time figuring out who the man was and what exactly he did.  After coming across Carr's name on numismatic forums all over the internet, I quickly discovered that many coin collectors loved his Moonlight Mint products while a few hated them.  I wanted to know why.

After extensive research, I got my answer.

Most collectors love his coins because they are as close to perfection as it is possible to get.  On the other hand, numismatic purists hate his coins because they are, ironically, too close to perfection!

I'll talk about that more in a moment, but first let's cover some important background information.

Daniel Carr specializes in an area of coin collecting known as exonumia.  This is a sub-section of numismatics that encompasses non-coin items such as medals, tokens, fantasy issues and bullion bars - anything that wasn't issued by a sovereign government with a face value.  Many collectors are drawn to exonumia because of its rich history, endless choice and, of course, its strong dash of numismatic whimsy.

Daniel Carr strikes exonumia at his private Moonlight Mint facility located in Loveland, Colorado and then sells these products to the general public via his website.  The items he mints include medals, hard times tokens, trade coins, fantasy pieces, overstrikes and bullion coins and bars.

But the mainstay of Carr's business is fantasy coins.  These are privately-struck pieces that were never officially issued by any national mint.  Yet they were often coins that almost came into existence, only to be stymied by some historical quirk of fate.  Daniel Carr enjoys meticulously recreating these improbable coins for discerning collectors.

Carr's detractors believe he diminishes the hobby of coin collecting when he strikes what would, under normal circumstances, be near-perfect counterfeits.  But there are a couple important mitigating facts.  First, the date on Moonlight Mint fantasy issues never match any officially struck date.  Second, Daniel Carr never attempts to deceive his costumers about what they are buying.  Everyone laying down money for his coins knows exactly what they are getting - beautiful, but unofficial fantasy pieces.

And because a quick look at the date of any Carr fantasy coin will let even a novice collector know that it isn't an official mint product, I'm enthusiastically siding with those who love Daniel Carr coins rather than those who hate them.  Carr and his Moonlight Mint strike incredibly desirable pieces that must by experienced firsthand to truly be appreciated.

Daniel Carr's Biography & the History of the Moonlight Mint

Born in 1958 in Denver Colorado, Daniel Carr is a self-taught medal and coin engraver/designer who has had a love affair with numismatics since the age of 14.  Although art (primarily sculpture and engraving) was a hobby, he ultimately graduated from the University of Colorado with a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering in 1982.  Later in life, Carr decided to combine his diverse interests by entering the field of numismatic design.

In 1998, Daniel Carr submitted an Apollo Astronaut-themed design to the U.S. Mint for use on a proposed small-diameter circulating dollar coin.  However, his concept was passed-over in favor of the Sacagawea gold-dollar that was ultimately adopted.  Undeterred, Carr submitted several reverse designs for the U.S. Mint's state quarter program in 1999.  Two of his designs were chosen - one for the 2001 New York state quarter and the other for the 2001 Rhode Island state quarter.  In addition, his proposed reverse for the 2003 Maine state quarter was adopted with modifications.

In 1998 Daniel Carr completed the first iteration of a unique software program - VS3D Virtual Sculptor - meant to digitally render coin designs.  He subsequently enhanced his software in 2004 to allow it to interface directly with CNC engraving machines.

In 2007, he bought himself a piece of decommissioned Denver Mint industrial equipment - a Grabener coin press.  This German-made coin press is capable of exerting up to 400 tons of striking force.  It operated at the U.S. Denver Mint between 1986 and 2001 before being retired and sold as surplus.  Once restored to working order in his Loveland, Colorado workshop, Carr began using the Grabener press in conjunction with his VS3D Virtual Sculptor software to design and strike his own line of privately-issued coins and medals.

Moonlight Mint's Grabener Coin Press

The Moonlight Mint's Grabener Coin Press (Photo Credit: Moonlight Mint)

These moves culminated in Carr's establishment of the Moonlight Mint in 2008 - a company dedicated to minting overstrikes, fantasy and bullion issues for coin collectors.  In 2013, Moonlight Mint acquired the rights to the storied Clark Gruber & Company name, allowing Carr to strike coins and bullion bars under this moniker.  He further enhanced the Moonlight Mint's operations in 2016 with the acquisition and restoration of an antique Mossberg ingot rolling machine.

Fantasy Overstrikes

Daniel Carr is perhaps best known for issuing fantasy overstrike coins, which are highly regarded by many coin collectors.  An overstrike occurs when an existing, previously struck coin is used as the planchet (coin blank) for another, different coin strike.  In most instances an overstrike is an error when produced by a government mint.  However, Daniel Carr intentionally creates overstrikes as a private mint product.

Carr has minted a wide variety of fantasy overstrike coins including Peace dollars, Morgan dollars, large cents and silver American Eagle bullion coins, among others.  Most of the time he employs a genuine, vintage circulated coin as a blank to enhance the history and legitimacy of a freshly-struck piece of the same design.  In some cases, ghost images from the original coin are still faintly visible on the final, overstruck coin.

It is important to note that the defacing of U.S. coins is legal provided it isn't done for fraudulent purposes.  All of Carr's overstrike products fall under this safe-haven provision.

Daniel Carr's most well-known fantasy overstrike coin by far is his 1964-D Peace silver dollar.  In August of 1964 Congress authorized the U.S. Mint to resume striking silver dollars - a coin that had not been minted since 1935.  The Denver Mint dutifully prepared new Peace dollar dies and struck a grand total of 316,076 coins.

Unfortunately, the United States was in the midst of a silver coinage crisis at the time and the decision was quickly made to melt all existing 1964-D Peace dollars without releasing any into circulation.  Despite persistent rumors to the contrary, there is no record of any original 1964-dated Peace dollar surviving.  But even if these coins did exist today it would be illegal to own one because the assumption would be that it had been stolen from the mint!

Enter Daniel Carr who meticulously reconstructed his own Peace dollar dies to strike this fantasy masterpiece.  In addition, nearly all examples were overstruck on circulated Peace dollars dating between 1922 and 1935.  Carr's 1964-D Peace dollar allows the collector of silver dollars or unusual coins to own what would normally be an ultra-rare piece for as little as $200.

Daniel Carr 1902-S Philippine Silver 1 Peso Overstrike Fantasy Coin

Daniel Carr 1902-S Philippine Silver 1 Peso Overstrike Fantasy Coin (Photo Credit: Moonlight Mint)

Another interesting overstrike fantasy piece created by Carr is the 1934 Saint-Gaudens $20 gold piece.  The renowned St. Gaudens design was featured on the nation's largest circulating gold coin from 1907 to 1933 and is widely regarded as one of the most beautiful U.S. coins ever minted.  While 445,500 of these coins dated 1933 were originally struck, nearly all of them were melted due to President FDR's gold nationalization edict issued in April of that same year.  Only a handful of 1933 St. Gaudens double eagles survived, making it one of the rarest and most valuable coins in the world today.

The United States didn't strike any gold coins in 1934.

Daniel Carr's 1934 Saint-Gaudens $20 gold piece plays with the idea of an alternate history where the United States didn't abandoned the gold standard in 1933.  All of these amazingly beautiful fantasy issues were overstruck on genuine St. Gaudens double eagle gold coins dated between 1908 and 1928.  A grand total of just 60 overstrikes were produced, making them very difficult to find in the secondary market.

Carr has also tried his hand at minting foreign fantasy overstrike coins.  Two of his most desirable foreign overstrikes are the 1907 and 1915 Mexican silver 1 peso.  This series was officially struck in Mexico from 1910 to 1914, with patterns struck in both 1908 and 1909.  It is affectionately nicknamed the "Caballito" (little horse) peso among numismatists due to its dynamic equine motif.

Although the coin's design is stunningly beautiful, its original production run was plagued by technical difficulties due to poor quality dies and inadequate striking pressure.  Consequently, most Mexican Caballito silver pesos suffer from mushy details and uneven striking.  Even so, an original example in decent circulated condition will still cost you at least $100 while a gem Brilliant Uncirculated specimen can run close to $1,000.

Daniel Carr sought to solve the coin's technical issues with his fantasy version.  First he consulted with the world's foremost expert on Mexican Caballito pesos, Alan Schein, throughout the project.  Then Carr engraved high-relief dies with increased detail before fully striking the coins using his high-pressure Grabener coin press.  The resulting 1907 and 1915 Mexican Caballito pesos are spectacular fantasy issues that realize the true vision of the original design.

Carr only issued 64 of these coins dated 1907 and an additional 47 dated 1915.  All were overstruck on genuine Mexican Caballito silver pesos originally minted between 1910 and 1913.

The last of Daniel Carr's overstrike fantasy coins that I wanted to highlight is the 1902-S Philippine silver 1 peso.  After the 1898 Spanish-American war, the United States gained control over the Philippines from Spain.  The Philadelphia and San Francisco mints began striking coinage for the newly acquired Philippine territories shortly afterwards, starting in 1903.  The Philippine silver 1 peso is a particularly gorgeous coin, with its dramatic depiction of Liberty on the obverse and a heraldic American eagle mounted atop a shield on the reverse.

The Philippine silver 1 peso coin was originally struck to the same standard as the U.S. silver dollar from 1903 to 1906, before being reduced in both weight and fineness starting in 1907 due to rising silver prices.  Survival rates for these early U.S.-Philippine silver issues are very low, resulting in the coins being rather scarce and difficult to obtain.

Daniel Carr decided to recreate this classic coin with a date of 1902 and a San Francisco mint mark.  His expertise in die engraving and minting produced a 1902-S Philippine silver 1 peso fantasy issue that is close to perfection in every dimension.  Although the total overstrike mintage is just 204 specimens, these proof-like beauties are still attainable with prices generally running between $150 and $350 each.  All of Carr's 1902-S Philippine silver 1 peso fantasy coins were struck over genuine 1903 or 1904-dated Philippine 1 peso silver coins.

 

Daniel Carr Fantasy Overstrike Coins For Sale on eBay

 

Amero Fantasy Issues

One of Daniel Carr's early successes was his Amero series of fantasy coins, struck from 2007 to 2018.  The Amero is a fictional currency unit for a hypothetical North American monetary union between Canada, the United States and Mexico.  The imagined Amero would presumably function similarly to how the Euro is used across Europe today.

Carr's designs for his Amero series are fanciful, yet superbly conceived.  They feature a variety of well-executed subjects on the obverse, ranging from the bust of a Native American chief with full headdress to an Art Deco-inspired personification of Liberty, among others.  The reverse typically depicts a majestic eagle with a map of North America and the legend "Union of North America".  Denominations range from the modest 1/4 Amero struck in copper, to the hefty 1,000 Ameros minted from 1 troy ounce of pure 24 karat gold.  Silver coins also exist in the 5, 10 and 20 Amero denominations.

Daniel Carr's Amero series hasn't been without its share of controversy, though.  The modern concept of a shared North American currency originated in a 1999 research paper written by Canadian economist Herbert Grubel on behalf of the Fraser Institute.

By 2007 alternative radio talk show host Hal Turner, a hardcore conspiracy-theorist, had latched onto the shared-currency idea.  He falsely claimed that Daniel Carr's Amero fantasy coins were proof that an ill-advised North American monetary union was imminent.  Although these wild speculations were quickly debunked, some people remained suspicious of the Amero fantasy issues.

In order to clear up any misunderstandings, Daniel Carr publicly stated that his Amero coins were solely meant for collectors and did not imply any political message.  A message on Carr's website explained:

"My goal with these coins is not to endorse a Union of North America or a common "Amero" currency.  I fully support the United States Constitution, and I would not welcome (in any form) a diminishment of its provisions.  I expect that these coins will help make more people aware of the issue and the possible ramifications.  I leave it up to others to decide if they are in favor of, or against a North American Union.  And I encourage citizens to voice their approval or disapproval of government plans that impact them."

 

Daniel Carr Amero Fantasy Coins For Sale on eBay

 

The Moonlight Mint's Clark Gruber & Company Bullion Issues

Daniel Carr has also issued an extensive line of bullion products - first under the Moonlight Mint name before switching over to the Clark Gruber & Company brand.  He has struck bullion coins and bars in metals as varied as silver, gold, platinum, palladium and even indium!  These bullion products are of particular interest to collectors because Carr has imbued their design and production with his own artistic sensibilities.

For example, Carr's Moonlight Mint/Clark Gruber & Co. products draw heavily for inspiration on coin designs from both the 19th century Old West and the golden age of American numismatics, circa 1905 to 1920.  The resulting bullion pieces are uniquely American in their look and feel, representing an authentic embodiment of American monetary traditions.  Each non-legal tender piece is also stamped with a purely symbolic dollar denomination at the rate of $40 per troy ounce of pure silver and $2,000 per troy ounce of fine gold.

Privately-minted bullion bars and coins have a long, rich history in the mining districts of the American West.  Although first issued in North Carolina and Georgia in the 1830s and 1840s, privately-struck U.S. gold coins really hit their stride during the California Gold Rush of the early 1850s.  During this time legendary assayers such as Moffat & Co., Augustus Humbert and Kellogg & Co. minted California placer gold into a variety of beautiful coins.  Some of these bullion pieces were used locally for high-value transactions while others were shipped back east to the nation's banking centers.

The next great renaissance in privately-struck bullion coins occurred during the Pike's Peak Gold Rush in Colorado in the early 1860s.  The Denver firm of Clark, Gruber & Company minted copious quantities of $2.5, $5, $10 and $20 gold pieces from locally mined ore to satisfy demand for money in the region.

Honest to a fault, the company actually struck their coins with a slightly higher gold content than equivalent U.S. Mint issues.  Clark, Gruber & Company was so well respected that the United States government purchased their entire operation in 1863.  The resulting U.S. Assay Office was eventually converted into the Denver Mint in 1906.

It was no coincidence that Daniel Carr resurrected the Clark Gruber & Company name in 2013 for use on his Moonlight Mint bullion products.  He wanted to capture the pioneering spirit and unimpeachable honestly of that legendary firm.  And in my opinion, he has succeeded beyond all expectations.

Moonlight Mint's Mossberg Ingot Rolling Machine

The Moonlight Mint's Mossberg Ingot Rolling Machine (Photo Credit: Moonlight Mint)

An interesting Moonlight Mint bullion product is the massive 100 gram silver "Union" coin featuring a winged Liberty design derived from the famous $20 St. Gaudens double eagle gold coin.  Carr actually based his work on Augustus Saint-Gaudens' preliminary design sketch of the iconic coin.

In effect, Carr's ultra high-relief, angelic-version of Liberty is what the $20 St. Gaudens gold piece might have looked like if history had taken a different turn.  Daniel Carr only plans to strike these impressive silver coins for a 3-year run from 2019 through 2021.

A pair of gold bullion pieces that I find fascinating are Carr's 1/5 owl (symbolic face value: $200) and 1/2 eagle (symbolic face value: $500) gold coins that carry the Clark Gruber & Company branding.  The obverse designs of these attractive coins closely match the original Clark, Gruber & Co. gold coins issued back in the early 1860s.

The biggest difference between those privately-issued 1860s coins and the recent Moonlight Mint series is that the latter is minted from .999 fine gold in round fractions of a troy ounce - 0.1 troy ounces for the 1/5 gold owl and 0.25 troy ounces for the 1/2 gold eagle.  Carr's coins are also a technical triumph, with far better details, luster and striking than you could ever hope for in a 19th century coin.  Struck every year from 2013 to the present, Carr has typically limited the mintage of these Clark Gruber & Co. pieces to less than 50 of each denomination per year.

The final Clark Gruber & Co. products I wanted to touch on are Carr's silver ingots and octagonal slugs.  Gold and silver bullion bars were a mainstay of mining communities in the Old West and the Moonlight Mint keeps that old-time tradition alive.

Weighing between 1 and 5 troy ounces each, these silver bars are typically stamped with either the Moonlight Mint logo (an owl sitting on a crescent moon), a majestic eagle, or a bust of Liberty borrowed from 19th century circulating U.S. gold coins.  The stamping of a symbolic dollar value on each bar at the rate of $40 for each troy ounce of silver further enhances their monetary character.

Although unattainable for most collectors today, over-sized octagonal gold bullion coins with a face value of $50 were struck by the San Francisco U.S. Assay Office during the 1850s.  These pieces were termed slugs because they were technically considered ingots and not coins.

The United States even issued an octagonal $50 commemorative gold coin in 1915 to celebrate the opening of the Panama Canal.  In addition to being obscenely heavy (with a gross weight of nearly 84 grams - 2.69 troy ounces), the octagonal $50 Panama-Pacific gold piece is considered one of the most exquisite and desirable U.S. coins ever made.

Daniel Carr's Moonlight Mint has perfectly replicated the look and feel of these massive octagonal bullion slugs in silver.  Weighing in at a hefty 1.5 troy ounces of .999 fine silver, each of Carr's octagonal bullion pieces is emblazoned with the Clark Gruber & Co. name and a symbolic $60 face value.

The Moonlight Mint logo of an owl sitting on a crescent moon graces the reverse of these magnificent coins - an obvious nod to the famous reverse of the 1915 Pan-Pacific $50 gold piece.  The obverses vary, but always reference a classic U.S. coin design or pioneer theme.  Some examples of the obverse designs used on Carr's octagonal slugs are Liberty with a puma, a Native American bust and a heraldic bald eagle inspired by an 1850s private California gold issue.

 

Moonlight Mint & Clark Gruber & Co. Bullion Coins For Sale on eBay

 

The Investment Case for Daniel Carr and his Moonlight Mint Coins

The investment case for Daniel Carr and his Moonlight Mint overstrikes, bullion pieces and fantasy issues is remarkably straightforward.  He produces incredibly well-designed, technically-polished gold and silver coins with a lot of history and symbolism behind them.  Yet their mintages are usually quite limited.

It is normal for Daniel Carr to strike no more than 200 or 300 of a given coin.  He frequently limits mintages to less than 100 pieces.  Some issues have a total population of only 20 or 30 coins!  And Carr never goes back and restrikes older designs or dates, no matter how high prices might climb in the secondary market.

Fiercely dedicated collectors usually snap up any available inventory within weeks of its release on his website.  At that point, it is only possible to purchase his products on the secondary market (e.g. online platforms like eBay).  This means that buyers are limited by what's on offer, so you may have to patiently wait for the exact piece that you want to show up.  Many Daniel Carr collectors are "strong hands", meaning they have no intention of selling regardless of how high prices go.

Consequently, you can expect secondary market prices for Daniel Carr coins to be high (and remain high) relative to their bullion values.  As proof, the median realized price of Moonlight Mint issues sold in the secondary market (via eBay) during summer 2020 was $125.  This statistic excludes expensive gold coins but includes low-intrinsic value copper and bronze pieces, thus dragging down the average realized price.  Nonetheless, it is common for Daniel Carr silver coins and bullion bars to sell for $50 to $100 a troy ounce - a profound vote of market confidence in a world where the spot price of silver has been hovering between $25 and $30.

It is also noteworthy that third-party grading services ANACS and ICG currently certify Daniel Carr fantasy issues and tokens.  It is almost unheard of for professional third-party graders to accept submissions of modern fantasy issues from private mints.  So the fact that these firms do is telling (although it should be noted that the two gorillas in the coin-grading space - PCGS and NGC - do not certify Carr pieces at the present time).  In any case, a third-party certification is valuable because it can give novice collectors or those seeking a guaranteed ultra-high numerical grade (e.g. MS-69 or MS-70) the confidence to buy.

Right now in 2020 Daniel Carr is 62 years old and near the apogee of his creative and technical skills.  But he won't be producing these wonderful pieces of exonumia forever.  The productivity of many artists and craftsmen declines dramatically as they age into their late 60s and early 70s due to creeping health issues or the desire to enjoy semi-retirement.

Even if Daniel Carr has another 10 or 15 good working years left (and I certainly hope he does), it will still amount to far less coin production than you'd think given the complex designs, exacting quality standards and limited mintages that he embraces.

As a result, it is easy to see a time 20 or 30 years in the future when Daniel Carr coins are widely recognized as legitimately rare works of desirable numismatic art.  In such a scenario, his coins would command much, much higher premiums than they do today.

As numismatic investors, we are looking for today's $100 or $200 coin that will be a $1,000 or $2,000 coin a couple decades from now.  And although we cannot say for certain that Daniel Carr issues will achieve that prestigious distinction, their combination of stunning design, extreme rarity and cultural relevancy certainly gives his coins that potential.

 

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Money Printer Go Brrr – The Hyperinflation Myth That Won’t Die

Money Printer Go Brrr - The Hyperinflation Myth That Won't Die

The dominant narrative of the 2020 financial markets is that the U.S. Federal Reserve is printing the U.S. dollar into oblivion.  After having expanded its balance sheet by roughly $3 trillion between March and May 2020 (during the worst of the pandemic lockdown), the Federal Reserve has actually shrunk its balance sheet by $220 billion since then.  But this hasn't stopped financial pundits from breathlessly speculating about how close the U.S. dollar is to collapsing into hyperinflation.

A great example of this conventional wisdom can be found in an article I recently discovered on the financial blog Adventures in Capitalism.  This blog is run by Harris Kupperman (aka Kuppy), founder of the hedge fund Praetorian Capital.  This guy is a market pro with over two decades of investing experience.

Kuppy penned an article titled "Did The Market Actually Recover From COVID-19…???"  It posits that even though the broad equity markets are either near (the Dow and S&P 500) or at (the NASDAQ) all time highs in nominal terms, in reality they are grinding along very low levels in valuation terms.  This means that equities are a buy - a strong buy!  Only an idiot wouldn't be long this market!

The way he achieves this valuation sleight of hand is by arguing that the U.S. financial authorities are engaged in what he calls "Project Zimbabwe" - in other words, hyperinflation.  During hyperinflations, stock markets shoot to the moon in nominal terms, even as the economy disintegrates around them.  This has happened in every country that has 1) experienced hyperinflation and 2) had a freely-trading stock market at the time of its hyperinflation.

The two latest examples of this unfortunate situation are Zimbabwe and Venezuela.  The Zimbabwe Industrial Index is up 654% for the YTD period through July 2020 while the Venezuela Stock Exchange General Index is up 280% over the same time.  So just invest in stocks and we'll all be rich, rich as Nazis!

Or maybe not.

Inflation in Zimbabwe is running somewhere close to 800% on an annual basis while Venezuelan inflation is maybe around 2,000% (hyperinflation rates are notoriously difficult to track, so all these figures are approximate).  So equity investors in these countries might actually be losing money in real terms as inflation threatens to outpace any gains they make in the markets.  Suddenly, those hockey stick equity market charts don't look nearly so appealing.

But Kuppy will not be deterred.

He produces a chart that shows the ratio between the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.  The implication is that in a "true" bull market the S&P 500 will rise in relation to the Fed's balance sheet, while in a bear market it will fall.  The chart then shows this in action, with the market ratio rising (the green line below) for most of the 2010s only to get unceremoniously knocked back down by the 2020 global pandemic.

 

SPY to Fed Balance Sheet Ratio

SPY to Fed Balance Sheet Ratio

But I find Kuppy's accompanying commentary to be an intriguing window into the hyperinflation-obsessed thought process of professional money managers everywhere.  I have excerpted a paragraph from his article below:

"What I find stunning is that after the COVID-19 crash, we’ve barely even bounced off the lows. In fact, we gave back a decade of retained earnings, financial engineering and everything else. We’re actually all the way back at 2010 levels. That’s stunning right? It’s literally been a wasted decade in the financial markets when indexed to the Fed’s balance sheet. That’s your COVID-19 crash and it’s as severe as you’d expect it to be."

So Kuppy thinks the downtrend in the S&P 500/Fed balance sheet ratio will stop and reverse higher as the Fed's money printing continues unabated.

Hyperinflation Ho!  Zimbabwe here we come!  Save us Dow!  Save us S&P 500!  Save us NASDAQ!

The hyperinflation narrative is perhaps best represented by the catchy slogan "money printer go brrr", which implies that Fed governors are busy manning the printing presses in the basement of the Eccles Building in a nefarious attempt to destroy our collective monetary future.  Here is an absurdly entertaining YouTube meme that encapsulates everything the mainstream investment community currently believes about the Fed's money printing.

 

 

Kuppy, like many money managers in the world today, is suffering from Fed induced Hyperinflation Derangement Syndrome.  Their thinking is that because gold is going up and stocks are going up and the Fed is printing, then it must mean that hyperinflation is right around the corner.

Except it's not true.  The Fed printing is really just plugging a giant sinkhole in the economy…barely.

As soon as I read Kuppy's article I decided to prove it wrong.  After about 45 minutes of work, I had my own chart showing the ratio of the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index to the Bank of Japan's balance sheet.  Remember, this is the same Bank of Japan that has been printing with wild abandon for years…years!  They've printed so much that their balance sheet has now swelled to 118% of Japanese GDP.  To put that into perspective, if the Fed just matched the BOJ, they would have to print an additional $16 trillion - enough to double the value of every dollar deposit account in the entire country!

And despite all this BOJ printing, there is still no inflation in Japan.  None.  Zero.  Nada.  Zilch.  The latest Japanese inflation reading in June 2020 was a microscopic 0.1% year-over-year.

Kuppy implicitly believes that the last 10 years of retained earnings and financial engineering in corporate America couldn't have been for nothing.  But it was.  Outside of a handful of exceptions, corporations actually retained very little in the way of earnings over the past 10 years.  Instead they spent it all on share buybacks and dividends.  Financial engineering has likewise proven to be a curse for long-term shareholders.  It has hollowed out many companies' productive capacities, snuffing out their future viability.

Instead of arising like a phoenix to new highs, further Fed printing will only cause the S&P 500 to Fed balance sheet ratio to contract even more aggressively.  One only has to look at the Nikkei to BOJ balance sheet chart below to realize that.  Regardless of how many trillions of yen the BOJ has printed, the ratio has relentlessly sunk ever lower.  In fact, you can still buy the Japanese Nikkei Index for the same (nominal) price it was back in 1987 - over 30 years ago!

 

Nikkei 225 Index to BOJ Balance Sheet Ratio

Nikkei 225 Index to BOJ Balance Sheet Ratio

In the final analysis, there are two interpretations of what is happening in the market right now.  The first is that we are in the nascent stages of hyperinflation - the money printer go brrr hypothesis.  This is the glib, simplistic myth that just won't die.

The other possibility is that traumatized investors are fully cognizant we have entered a modern-day Greater Depression.  Consequently, they are retreating to the safest, most liquid and money-like financial instruments possible - things like Treasury bonds, Agency debt and cash, along with gold and silver bullion.  In conjunction with that, we are also experiencing the end stages of the largest equity bubble in the history of mankind - the twilight of the dreaded Everything Bubble.

I think the latter explanation is far more compelling than the former.

Of course I don't hate equities simply because they are equities.  I hate them because they are so overpriced at the moment that their future returns will undoubtedly have a negative sign in front of them.  If the valuations weren't so obscene, my investment outlook would be more constructive.

As a parting gift, I will give you a little investing tip.  You'll often hear that you should invest in good, solid dividend paying stocks.  And I would, if there were any domiciled in the United States.  Alas, U.S. corporate management has mortgaged their shareholders' future through accounting tricks and excessive leverage.

 

Gold 1/10 Troy Ounce Bullion Coins For Sale

 

But I did stumble across a gem from overseas during my research.  Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan Holdings Inc. is a company that controls 90% of the Japanese Coca-Cola beverage distribution market by sales volume.  It administers the most important, most populous geographic areas in Japan, including Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto.  The company trades under the ticker "2579" on the Tokyo Stock Exchange or "CCOJY" as an over-the-counter ADR (American Depositary Receipt) in the U.S.

The firm has a market cap of around $3 billion, making CCOJY a mid-cap company.  It also has an English language website, which makes gathering company information easier.  The ADR (CCOJY) will probably be the most accessible security option for most U.S. investors.

I like CCOJY because it has a healthy dividend yield of between 2.5% and 3.0%, a low price-to-sales ratio of 0.35, and a reasonable debt to (tangible) equity ratio of only 55%.  The company's debt sports a solid AA-/A+ credit rating, which means that their debt servicing costs are negligible.  The chances of this firm going bankrupt are nil.

Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan Holdings Inc. is the kind of company you buy today and stuff away in your retirement account for the next 10 years.  You'll earn a fair return on it (probably mid single digits annualized), which I understand isn't stellar.  But neither will you wake up one random morning to news that the company disintegrated overnight as its executives fled to Mars in the wake of an accounting scandal.

CCOJY has declined by about 45% (in dollar terms) from earlier this year due to the impact of COVID-19.  But it is a consumer staple company and sales volumes are unlikely to drop significantly.  Positive near-term catalysts include the (now delayed to 2021) Tokyo Summer Olympics and the potential for further consolidation with the remaining smaller Japanese Coca-Cola bottlers.  CCOJY's dollar price is currently near an all-time low, while its yen price is the same as it was back in 2013, 2009, 1995 and probably earlier as well (but that is as far back as I could get data).

In any case, please do yourself a favor by not falling for the hyperinflation myth.  The U.S. dollar isn't going to fall apart anytime soon.  But even so, I think allocating some of your portfolio to gold or silver (or the rare undervalued stock) is a good idea.  Otherwise, holding cash while you wait for better investment opportunities to come along is just fine.

 

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How I Stacked $1,200 of Premium Silver at Spot

How I Stacked $1,200 of Premium Silver at Spot

I originally wrote this article during early 2020, before the global pandemic ushered in a period of widespread silver bullion shortages and accompanying crazy high silver premiums.  Consequently, the advice contained in this article about buying silver at spot is no longer fully functional.  Regardless, I decided to publish it anyway for two reasons.

First, it is an important window into how the retail silver stacking market historically worked prior to March 2020 (and how quickly that all changed).  Second, it is possible that premiums on silver will normalize at some indeterminate point in the future.  If this were to happen, my article on stacking premium silver at spot would be a great step-by-step how-to guide.  Even with today's elevated premiums, adopting the strategy below might still offer the savvy silver stacker a way to accumulate precious metals relatively cheaply.

So without further delay, here is the original article with only minor edits.

It is maddeningly obvious that the world is careening towards a financial crises/monetary reset of some description.  Because of this, I find it prudent to diversify my dollar holdings into something other than paper assets like stocks and bonds.  That something else is usually tangible assets like antiques, art and gemstones.

But as much as I like antiques, there is a certain simplicity to purchasing raw bullion as a fiat currency alternative.  Gold and silver have been treasured by mankind since the dawn of history.  They have also served as an immutable form of money for that same length of time - about 5,000 years.  So you can be sure that they will still hold their value during the next financial crisis, regardless of when it comes and what form it takes.

Now what if I told you that there was a way for you to buy silver at spot?

Under normal circumstances this is impossible.  The spot price is typically a purely theoretical price available only in the paper futures market.  The average person can't actually buy physical silver at spot (or any other precious metal, for that matter).  Instead, coin and precious metal dealers will mark up their inventory by a small percentage in order to cover overhead costs and give themselves a modest profit margin.

The only exception to this rule is some online dealers who will offer a small quantity of silver - usually 5 or 10 troy ounces - at spot for new customers only.  So if you're willing to sign up with a bunch of different online precious metal dealers, you can expect to get between 30 and 50 ounces of silver at spot (Ed. Note: To the best of my knowledge, only SilverGoldBull still has a silver at spot deal intermittently available).

But this strategy is both inconvenient and limited.  You'll never get more than a few dozen ounces of the precious white metal at the going spot rate using this technique.  And the dealer gets to choose the type of silver you'll receive.  As a result, you're pretty much guaranteed to receive generic bars or rounds, which is the cheapest, least desirable kind of silver available.

But what if I said there was a way to buy hundreds of ounces of silver at spot?  And that some of that silver would be premium silver of your choice?

It almost sounds too good to be true, doesn't it?

But it isn't (Ed. Note: Well, it wasn't too good to be true before March 2020).  In fact, I bought myself $1,200 worth - about 67 troy ounces - of silver at spot over the past few months (in late 2019) using this little-known technique.

How does it work?

The key is eBay Bucks, an incentive program offered by the online auction giant that only U.S. and Canadian residents can sign up for.  Under normal circumstances, 1% of the purchase price of an item sold on the eBay platform is rebated to the buyer in the form of an eBay Bucks coupon.  But this amount is often enhanced to 5%, 8% or even 10% during special promotional periods.

EBay Bucks accrue from your purchases until they are paid out in the form of a voucher at the end of each quarter.  This eBay Bucks voucher (which expires 30 days after being issued) can then be used toward the purchase of anything for sale on the auction site, including bullion.

For those who are interested in all the gritty details surrounding eBay Bucks, I suggest you read my article titled "Buying Bullion at Spot with eBay Bucks"

So here is the story of how I bought $1,200 of silver at spot.

First I signed up for the eBay Bucks program; the strategy obviously won't work if you aren't signed up.  Then I waited for a 10% promotional eBay Bucks period.  EBay typically offers these promos once or twice a month, so you likely won't have to wait long (Ed. Note: Since COVID-19 hit, eBay has restricted its promotional eBay Bucks bonuses to only 5% - still worth it though).  However, the incentive period usually only lasts for 48 to 72 hours, so you have to pay attention or you'll miss it.

Then I searched for pre-1965 U.S. 90% junk silver coin rolls for sale.  I personally prefer to use eBay's "Buy-It-Now" option even though it is often marginally more expensive than the traditional auction format.  I favor "Buy-It-Now" listings because it means that I can complete the entire transaction in just a few minutes.  More importantly, I can be assured that I will be able to pay for the item before the end of the eBay Bucks promotional period, which is necessary in order to receive the enhanced eBay Bucks accrual.

In my case, I bought 5 rolls ($50 face value) of mixed Walking Liberty and Franklin half dollars for around $142 a roll, or just under $710 in total.  Minted between 1916 and 1947, Walking Liberty half dollars are widely considered to be one of the most beautiful coins ever struck in the United States.  In fact, the design was so recognizable that it was resurrected in the mid 1980s for use on the 1 troy ounce American Silver Eagle bullion coin.

Franklin halves minted between 1948 and 1963 are also quite attractive, with a distinctly Mid-Century aesthetic.  They are some of my favorite junk silver coins, and are underappreciated in my opinion.

 

eBay Bucks Eligible Pre-1965 U.S. 90% Silver Coins For Sale

 

When I bought these 5 rolls of junk silver, eBay was offering 10% in eBay Bucks.  So I accrued a nearly $71 rebate on the purchase.

After waiting a few weeks, eBay had another 10% promo period.  This time I bought $30 face value of silver Roosevelt dimes for a bit under $141 (per $10 face value), or $422 in total.  Roosevelt dimes were first minted in 1946 in honor of President FDR, who died in office in 1945.  They were struck in 90% silver through 1964, when their composition was changed over to the cupro-nickel clad alloy that is still in use today.  I accrued about $42 worth of eBay Bucks on this purchase.

When the end of the calendar quarter came, eBay issued me an eBay Bucks voucher for $113.  Now it was just a question of waiting for the right bullion deal to come along.

EBay is careful not to offer eBay Bucks incentive periods in the month following quarter end.  This is to keep you from double dipping by using your eBay Bucks voucher during a promo period (they stack).  The only exception to this is October, when they will typically offer an eBay Bucks promo toward the end of the month.  I suspect they do this because it is at the beginning of the Christmas buying season.

In any case, I opted to ignore the possibility of double dipping on another eBay Bucks incentive period.  Instead, I chose to use my voucher to buy something from eBay's "Bullion" category.  Items purchased from the bullion category don't accrue eBay Bucks, but you can redeem eBay Bucks vouchers on them.

Now I like premium silver - the good stuff.  Unfortunately, premium silver is invariably more expensive than generic silver.  But to me, paying a little bit extra for a higher quality product is well worth it.

That's when I saw it.

Scottsdale Mint was having a sale on its gorgeous 10 troy ounce Scottsdale Stacker silver bars through its eBay store.  They were being offered for only $1.48 per ounce over spot.  This was a phenomenally good deal, especially for such a high quality silver bar.

The Scottsdale Mint is an Arizona-based firm known for producing some of the finest premium silver available on the market.  They have been contracted to strike legal-tender collectible coins for many smaller sovereign nations, including Fiji, Barbados and Cameroon.  So this is a company with tight quality control and a stellar reputation.

Scottsdale Stacker silver bars are precision machined in the U.S.  Each one comes with a unique serial number and an anti-forgery, engine-turned design emblazoned on the reverse.  And they typically cost you about $3 an ounce over spot, even if you buy them directly from the Scottsdale Mint website.

They are exactly the kind of premium silver that I love.  So $1.48 over spot was too good a deal to pass up.

I quickly pulled the trigger, purchasing a single Scottsdale Stacker silver bar for $190.  But because I used my $113 eBay Bucks voucher to pay for most of it, my net cost was only $77.

Now I understand that all these numbers can be overwhelming.  So I've distilled my experience down to an easily digestible table that you can peruse at your leisure.

 

Face Price Spot at
Value/ Troy Per Time of
Description Count Ounces Cost Ounce Order
90% Silver Walking Liberty/Franklin Halves:  $50 35.75  $709.70  $19.85  $18.04
90% Silver Roosevelt Dimes:  $30 21.45  $422.19  $19.68  $18.00
10 Tr. Oz. Scottsdale Mint Stacker Bar: 1 10.00  $189.90  $18.99  $17.51
Total Cost Before eBay Bucks: 67.20  $1,321.79  $19.67  $17.95
eBay Bucks:  $(113.19)
Total Cost After eBay Bucks:  $1,208.60  $17.99

 

I'll leave you will a short summation of my silver buying spree here.

I ended up purchasing $50 face value of Walking Liberty/Franklin halves, $30 face value of Roosevelt dimes and one 10 troy ounce Scottsdale Stacker silver bar.  All of these purchases together totaled 67.2 troy ounces of pure silver (junk silver is calculated at 7.15 troy ounce of fine silver per $10 face value).  My total cost was only $1,208 (and change).  The spot price of silver during my purchases fluctuated between $17.51 and $18.04, with a weighted average price of $17.95.

The total cost per ounce for my 67.2 ounces of silver was only $17.99 - a mere 4 cents over spot!  Now if you're buying silver at spot, you'd normally expect to only receive low-premium generic silver.  But that wasn't my experience.  Instead, I mostly bought silver half dollars (which always trade at a small premium to silver dimes and quarters), along with a premium bullion bar.

This defies expectations, proving just how powerful the eBay Bucks silver stacking strategy can be.

 

Scottsdale Mint Silver Bullion Bars & Rounds For Sale

 

Better yet, this approach to buying silver at spot is incredibly flexible.  I purchased 67 ounces, but that is because it is what I could afford.  If you wanted to, you could scale this strategy down to just a couple hundred dollars or scale it up to many thousands of dollars.  And you could also tilt it towards higher premium silver (at a slightly higher cost per ounce) or lower premium silver (at a lower cost per ounce) as you see fit.

And let's not forget that the cherry on top for an eBay Bucks silver stacking strategy would be to combine it with a rewards credit card.  It is fairly easy to get a credit card that pays 1% to 2% cash back on purchases.  All of the numbers above assume you aren’t using a cash back card.  If you do use one, you might even be able to buy silver below spot!

If you are interested in protecting your wealth, I highly recommend that you use this powerful eBay Bucks silver stacking strategy to buy silver at spot.

A word of warning though.  I was only able to buy silver at spot because no one cares about precious metals at the moment.  In a future scenario where silver and gold demand shoots through the roof, there is no way deals this good are going to be available.  So buy now, while you can still get it cheap (Ed. Note: My warning at the time now sounds prophetic given the shortages that hit the silver market during 2020)!

 

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Getting Your “Fair Share” of the Hard Asset Pie

Getting Your "Fair Share" of the Hard Asset Pie

We all want our fair share in life.  Unfortunately, with the onset of the greatest financial disruption since the Great Depression I suspect that getting your fair share will become increasingly difficult in the years ahead.  But there is still a small window of opportunity remaining - a period of time when the increasingly debased dollars in your bank account haven't quite caught up to the reality of the extreme scarcity of most tangible assets.

You see, the world is currently awash in financial assets.  There are more equities, bonds and real estate securities in existence today (as measured by dollar-denominated value) than at any other time in human history.  And the growth rate of these financial assets has been absolutely stunning over the past several decades - a classic exponential curve.

In contrast, hard assets in the real world - things like precious metals, antiques, gemstones and fine art - have only experienced linear growth.  This makes them quite rare when compared to financial assets.

How rare?

That's something I wanted to find out.  So I asked myself a hypothetical question.  What if everybody tried to get their "fair share" of hard assets?  In other words, what if we split the world's supply of tangible assets evenly among the total world population?  How much would there be per person?

But let's assume for a moment that we only care about the richest 10% of the global population.  Why do I make this distinction?  Because poor people, regardless of whether they live in developed or emerging markets, have a very limited ability to invest in anything.  They will almost certainly not get their "fair share".  As unjust as this sounds, it is the truth.  Only the world's middle class and wealthy have the means to realistically protect themselves financially against the coordinated central bank debasement that we now face.

Taking the richest 10% of the world corrects for this situation.  So it is only this select group that I will divvy up the world's tangible wealth among in the calculations below.  But don't worry.  It is actually much easier to make it into the world's richest 10% than you might think at first.

As of March 2020, the world's population reached 7.8 billion.  According to investment bank Credit Suisse's 2019 Global Wealth Report, it takes a net worth of just under $100,000 (including primary residence) to belong to the richest 10% of the global population.  The people who fit this description are the usual suspects - many North Americans, Western Europeans and Japanese, along with China's rising middle class.

So how much is your fair share of the world's hard assets?  Read on to find out!

It is estimated that the total stock of above ground gold is around 170,000 metric tons, or 5.5 billion troy ounces.  This king's ransom represents about 90% of all the gold humanity has mined throughout history.  This is due to the fact that gold is almost always recycled and, therefore, never truly lost.

If we divide this massive gold stash evenly among the richest 10% of the global population (780 million people), we come up with a modest per person "fair share" of 7 troy ounces each.  At the current spot price of $1,800, this amount of gold would only cost you $12,600.

The numbers for silver are even more shocking.  Although estimates vary widely, if we (generously) assume that there are perhaps 1,360,000 metric tons of silver stockpiled in the world today, it would translate into just 56 troy ounces for each of the world's wealthiest individuals.  Even with today's usurious premiums on physical silver bullion ($22 an ounce, delivered), your fair share would cost a paltry $1,232.

And if you thought the numbers for silver were nuts, just wait until you hear how rare platinum is!  We can safely predict that there are no more than 12,000 metric tons of platinum in the form of bullion, jewelry and scientific equipment in the world.  If we split this (probably overestimated) amount evenly among the world's richest 780 million people, we would come up with a scant 1/2 troy ounce per person.  Even when paying an elevated premium over spot to acquire physical metal, your fair share of platinum would only cost you $500 to $600 today.

 

Fractional Platinum Bullion Coins & Bars For Sale

 

But what happens when we move beyond precious metals?

Here's a hint.  Antiques are just as rare as gold and silver, if not more so.

For example, numismatic experts believe that up to 65 million of the iconic U.S. Morgan silver dollar have survived in mint state condition.  Perhaps a slightly smaller number of U.S. silver Peace dollars are also extant in mint state.  These U.S. silver dollars were struck in massive quantities, making them relatively common today.  They are so common, in fact, that there is probably the same number of Morgan silver dollars as there is old foreign silver crowns (silver dollar-sized coins) in existence.  Some well-known examples of foreign silver crowns include the British crown (a pre-decimal 5 shilling piece - last struck in 1937), the French 5 franc (last issued in 1871), the Mexican 1 peso (last minted in 1914) and the Japanese 1 yen (also last struck in 1914).

So let's assume that we divide the world's estimated supply of mint state U.S. silver dollars and foreign silver crowns equally among the world's wealthiest 10%.  That would be 65 million Morgan dollars plus maybe 40 million Peace dollars plus another 65 million foreign silver crowns for a grand total of 170 million coins.  These are probably excessively kind assumptions about the surviving populations of large silver coins, but we'll use them anyway.

Once we divide our 170 million coins among 780 million people, we find out that your "fair share" is only about 1/5th of a coin.  Of course, we can't split a coin into fractions and still have it retain any numismatic value.  So about 78% of the wealthiest 10% of the population will never, ever get their fair share here.  This is in addition to the poorest 90% of the population who will also get a big goose egg.  Only 1 in 5 middle class/wealthy individuals could possibly have the honor of owning one of these impressive pieces, representing about 2.2% of the total global population.

And the price tag?  A mere $50 or $60 will get your foot in the door with a PCGS or NGC certified mint state Morgan silver dollar.  For those interested in learning more about this subject, please read my beginner's guide to investing in slabbed Morgan silver dollars.

It is insane to think that rare coins have been so devalued in the modern age that $50 is enough to buy an entry level investment grade example.  But it is completely true.  And coins aren't the only category of tangible asset that has been neglected during the raging paper asset bubbles of the past decade.

Vintage watches are also incredibly undervalued.  These include pre-1990 watches from world-renowned brands such as Rolex, Omega, IWC, Hamilton and Longines, among others.

A quick search of eBay reveals that there are approximately 40,000 vintage watches for sale on the platform at any given time.  Now I've tried to filter out examples that I consider uninvestable.  This means I've excluded parts watches, quartz watches and gold-filled or gold-plated watches.  If we conservatively guesstimate that the remaining 40,000 specimens for sale on eBay represent just 0.1% - 1/10th of a percent - of the surviving vintage watch population, it means that there are around 40 million old collectible watches out there.

It seems like a lot of watches, right?

Wrong.

If everyone in the global middle class wanted to own just one of these horological treasures, we would quickly discover that only 1 in 20 people would have their wish fulfilled!  High quality vintage watches, like most hard assets, are obscenely rare.  Yet $500 to $1,000 will allow you to choose from a wide range of desirable examples.  $1,500 to $3,000 will get you a superlative solid karat gold dress watch or complication-laden sports watch from some of the finest manufacturers out there.

 

Vintage Wristwatches For Sale

 

So what is going on in the world?  How can hard assets that are so scarce be so cheap right now?

I have a theory on this.

In my opinion, the financial authorities have spent the last 30 years striving to answer a question that nobody asked.  What if everything that humanity once held in high esteem - precious metals, gemstones, antiques, fine art - was suddenly ignored and treated as though it was worthless?  It is a bizarre sociological experiment doomed to end in tears.

So why would the central bankers even attempt it?  That, at least, is somewhat easier to answer.  If everyone is chasing paper assets instead of tangible assets, it gives the world's monetary authorities unprecedented control over the global economy.  At least while it lasts.

But the outcome of this perverse experiment has been surprising.

The value of hard assets didn't drop to zero as the central planners had hoped.  Instead, they stubbornly maintained a bid - albeit at reduced prices - in a financial world madly obsessed with worthless unicorn IPOs, securitized junk debt and exotic derivatives.

Now the pendulum is slowly but surely swinging the other way.  This threatens to destroy the fake economy that the world's central bankers have so painstakingly tried to build.  Your only protection is to diversify your portfolio into hard assets - precious metals, antiques, rare coins and other tangibles.  It is imperative that you get your fair share of these undervalued assets while bargain pricing still abounds.

 

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